- The Padres are -135 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies vs Padres Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Phillies / Padres TV Channel: NSPA | PDTV
The Philadelphia Phillies (+115) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-135) on Sunday, April 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Phillies are 18-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 14-16 ATS.
Phillies vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 2-2, 4.11 ERA
Phillies vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -185 | O 8.5 -115 | +115 |
| Padres | -1.5 +150 | U 8.5 -105 | -135 |
Phillies vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 24 games (+14.85 Units / 62% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 27 games (+10.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+10.75 Units / 58% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+10.15 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 15 games (+14.50 Units / 97% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.20 Units / 56% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 65 games at home (+13.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 55 games at home (+12.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 14-14 against the Run Line (+0.1 Units / 0.29% ROI).
- 18-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 9.03% ROI
- 11-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.6 Units / -21.57% ROI
- 16-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.7 Units / 11.94% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 14-16 against the Run Line (-0.25 Units / -0.71% ROI).
- 14-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.5 Units / -9.46% ROI
- 15-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 14-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.75 Units / -8.17% ROI
Padres vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Padres vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Padres vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Padres vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased just 98 of Taijuan Walker’s 459 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 21%) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 0 Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 58% (457/788) in two strike counts since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.8 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since last season (76 balls in play) — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 90.3
Hitters have chased just 138 of Taijuan Walker’s 701 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 20%) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 0 Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael King has walked 13 of 68 left-handed batters (19%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Michael King has walked 7 of 53 batters (13%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — eighth Percentile.
Michael King has walked 18 of 137 batters (13%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 58% of Michael King’s pitches in the zone (623/1,080) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 85-8 (.914) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Phillies are 36-25 (.590) after a home win since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .523.
The Phillies are 161-11 (.936) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Phillies are 19-125 (.132) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .093.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are just 4-16 (.200) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Padres are just 83-14 (.856) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Padres are just 1-81 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Padres are just 16-31 (.340) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have 559 strikeouts in 2,244 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .440 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .352 (375 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Phillies hitters are slugging .501 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 34 walks in 268 PA’s (13%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Padres are batting just .200 against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Padres hitters are slugging .451 against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Padres are just 4-16 (.200) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 53% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 217 of 3,127 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (4,613 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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