- The Phillies are -125 favorites vs the Rays
- Phillies vs Rays Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Phillies / Rays TV Channel: FSUN | NSPA
The Philadelphia Phillies (-125) visit George M. Steinbrenner Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (+105) on Wednesday, May 7, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Tampa, FL, FL.
This season, the Phillies are 20-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 15-20 ATS.
Phillies vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 3-1, 3.41 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Shane Baz 3-1, 3.90 ERA
Phillies vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +140 | O 8 -102 | -125 |
| Rays | +1.5 -170 | U 8 -118 | +105 |
Phillies vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 55.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Max Kepler has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+20.20 Units / 289% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+8.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+7.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.85 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Curtis Mead has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+11.30 Units / 283% ROI)
- Curtis Mead has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- Curtis Mead has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+9.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Curtis Mead has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 31 games (+5.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+4.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.40 Units / 35% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 16 games (+1.95 Units / 9% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 18-17 against the Run Line (-0.85 Units / -1.95% ROI).
- 20-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -0.27% ROI
- 17-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.85 Units / -7.37% ROI
- 18-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.6 Units / -1.56% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 15-20 against the Run Line (-6.25 Units / -14.47% ROI).
- 16-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.15 Units / -11.51% ROI
- 14-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.85 Units / -17.68% ROI
- 19-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.9 Units / 10.18% ROI
Rays vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Rays vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Chandler Simpson (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Rays vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
Rays vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Shane Baz (TB) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (368/639) against Cristopher Sanchez since last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 61% (136/221) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 58% (324/557) against Cristopher Sanchez in the 2024 season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (149/248) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 19% (27/143) against Shane Baz this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — first Percentile.
Shane Baz has thrown his curveball 49% of the time (83/169) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 98th Percentile.
Shane Baz has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (119/323) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 83% (15/18) against Shane Baz on low breaking pitches this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — 98th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Phillies are just 15-23 (.395) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Phillies are 67-33 (.670) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Phillies are 4-11 (.267) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .122.
The Phillies are 36-29 (.554) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Rays (29th best runs scored) today.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Rays are 14-143 (.089) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Rays are 2-16 (.111) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .043.
The Rays were 70-1 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Rays are 23-136 (.145) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .098.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies batted .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .777 (2,326 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .335 (4,195 PA’s) against LHP since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Phillies hitters had an OPS of .783 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters slugged just .358 against RHP in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Rays hitters had an OPS of .774 (4,837 PA’s) against RHP in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Rays hitters had a groundball batting average of .311 with runners on base in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Rays hitters had an OBP of .330 (4,837 PA’s) against RHP in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Batters facing the Phillies pitchers have struck out in the zone 48% of the time since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 34 double plays in 227 opportunities (15%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 29% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Rays pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Rays pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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