- The Phillies are -135 favorites vs the Rays
- Phillies vs Rays Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Phillies / Rays TV Channel: FSUN | NSPA | MLBN
The Philadelphia Phillies (-145) visit George M. Steinbrenner Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (+120) on Thursday, May 8, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Tampa, FL, FL.
This season, the Phillies are 21-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 15-21 ATS.
Phillies vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 3-0, 1.95 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Pepiot 2-4, 4.27 ERA
Phillies vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 -105 | -145 |
| Rays | +1.5 -150 | U 8.5 -115 | +120 |
Phillies vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 55.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Max Kepler has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+19.20 Units / 240% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 20 away games (+8.95 Units / 45% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+7.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.65 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Curtis Mead has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+11.30 Units / 283% ROI)
- Curtis Mead has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Curtis Mead has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Curtis Mead has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.80 Units / 33% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 32 games (+6.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+5.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+4.85 Units / 31% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+9.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 17 games (+0.75 Units / 3% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 19-17 against the Run Line (+0.15 Units / 0.34% ROI).
- 21-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 1.48% ROI
- 17-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.95 Units / -9.94% ROI
- 19-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.4 Units / 1.01% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 15-21 against the Run Line (-7.45 Units / -16.78% ROI).
- 16-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.15 Units / -13.44% ROI
- 14-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.95 Units / -19.95% ROI
- 20-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.9 Units / 12.44% ROI
Rays vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -325 |
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Danny Jansen (TB) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Rays vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Rays vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Rays vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +125 |
| Ryan Pepiot (TB) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
34% of Jesus Luzardo’s strikeouts are in the zone this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — ninth Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 32% (40/124) against Jesus Luzardo this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 90th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has a strikeout rate of 49% (32 SO in 65 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 91st Percentile.
32% of Jesus Luzardo’s strikeouts are in the zone since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters hit just .111 (8-for-72) against Ryan Pepiot in 2023 — 2nd best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .229 — 98th Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot allowed an OBP of just .147 (75 PA’s) vs left-handed batters in 2023 — best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .316 — 100th Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot has allowed a slugging percentage of .773 (17 Total Bases / 22 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .360 — first Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot allowed a BABIP of .089 vs left-handed batters in 2023 — best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .285 — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Phillies are 100-21 (.826) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .721.
The Phillies were 83-15 (.847) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Phillies are just 0-12 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .044.
The Phillies were 28-22 (.560) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Braves (15th best runs scored) today.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Rays are 14-144 (.088) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Rays are 2-17 (.105) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .044.
The Rays are just 9-15 (.375) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .579.
The Rays were 16-64 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .342 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Phillies are batting .270 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Phillies hitters are slugging .436 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Phillies hitters are slugging .444 against LHP since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters slugged just .358 against RHP in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Rays hitters had an OPS of just .657 (4,637 PA’s) against RHP in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Rays scored first in 71% of their games against division opponents in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters had an OPS of .774 (4,837 PA’s) against RHP in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Phillies pitchers had a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 8% of batters since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 34 double plays in 237 opportunities (14%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers did not pick-off any runners from first base in 2023 — lowest in MLB.
Rays pitchers have walked 7% of batters since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 67% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
More MLB Reading:
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