- The Brewers are -145 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Pirates / Brewers TV Channel: BSWI | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+120) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-145) on Monday, May 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Pirates are 18-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 22-18 ATS.
Pirates vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 3-3, 4.44 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Colin Rea 3-0, 3.29 ERA
Pirates vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -120 | +120 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +140 | U 8.5 +100 | -145 |
Pirates vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Monday‘s MLB game with 54.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jared Triolo has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 23 games (+19.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+15.30 Units / 191% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 23 games (+10.90 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 35 games (+19.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- Blake Perkins has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 28 games (+16.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 20 of his last 40 games (+14.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 36 games (+13.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 34 games (+11.55 Units / 32% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.13 Units / 40% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.58 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.08 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.60 Units / 49% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 20-21 against the Run Line (-3.09 Units / -5.69% ROI).
- 18-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.3 Units / -14.79% ROI
- 17-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.8 Units / -12.8% ROI
- 21-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.78 Units / 6.2% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 22-18 against the Run Line (+0.75 Units / 1.32% ROI).
- 24-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.3 Units / 18.04% ROI
- 24-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.7 Units / 15.24% ROI
- 16-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.15 Units / -23.04% ROI
Brewers vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Brewers vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Brewers vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Connor Joe (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Brewers vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Colin Rea (MIL) | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +125 |
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -160 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 11% (6/56) against Mitch Keller on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .282 (161-for-571) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — seventh Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a first-pitch strike rate of just 46% (25/54) — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
4 of Mitch Keller’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 9th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 89th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Colin Rea has struck out just 14% (13/94) of left-handed batters he faced this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Colin Rea has a strikeout rate of just 16% (10 SO in 63 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — eighth Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of just 11% (6/56) against Colin Rea when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (50/273) against Colin Rea this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 31-64 (.326) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Pirates are just 74-108 (.407) on the road since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .475.
The Pirates are just 24-25 (.490) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .616.
The Pirates are just 149-180 (.453) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 41-95 (.301) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Brewers are 27-50 (.351) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .212.
The Brewers are 34-24 (.586) after a road win since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Brewers are 36-23 (.610) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .313 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .384.
Pirates hitters have 387 strikeouts in 1,157 PA’s (33%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .498 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Pirates are batting just .225 on the road since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .232 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters have chased 12% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .380 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Brewers hitters have chased 23% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers are throwing just 3.72 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Pirates pitchers have not walked any of the 55 batters that they have faced when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,314 of 14,054 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The average home run distance against the Pirates pitchers this season is 406.0 feet — highest in MLB; League Avg: 396.2
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Brewers pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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