- The Brewers are -145 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Pirates / Brewers TV Channel: BSWI | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-150) on Wednesday, May 15, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Pirates are 19-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 22-20 ATS.
Pirates vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Martin Perez 1-2, 3.63 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Robert Gasser 1-0, 0.00 ERA
Pirates vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 -115 | +125 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -105 | -150 |
Pirates vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 55.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Connor Joe has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+19.80 Units / 198% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 games (+18.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+13.60 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.35 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 29 of his last 37 games (+18.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Blake Perkins has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 28 games (+16.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 38 games (+14.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 20 of his last 42 games (+12.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 36 games (+11.65 Units / 31% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 32 games (+15.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+10.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 32 games (+8.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.85 Units / 12% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+8.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+8.44 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 42 games (+7.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 42 games (+7.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 42 games (+4.05 Units / 8% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 22-21 against the Run Line (-1.09 Units / -1.89% ROI).
- 19-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.1 Units / -13.83% ROI
- 18-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.9 Units / -12.43% ROI
- 22-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.63 Units / 5.58% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 22-20 against the Run Line (-1.25 Units / -2.12% ROI).
- 25-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.9 Units / 16.12% ROI
- 25-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.6 Units / 14.32% ROI
- 17-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.3 Units / -22.25% ROI
Brewers vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
Brewers vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Joey Ortiz (MIL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Brewers vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Edward Olivares (PIT) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Brewers vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Perez (PIT) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
| Robert Gasser (MIL) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Martin Perez has located his fastball inside 57% of the time (157/276) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 38% (39/103) against Martin Perez this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .385 (10-for-26) against Martin Perez with two-strikes over the last 14 days — highest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .160 — second Percentile.
Martin Perez has walked 3 of 72 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 3rd best among in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 95th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Robert Gasser allowed an OPS of just .255 (20 PA’s) — 4th best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .668 — 97th Percentile.
Robert Gasser has allowed an OPS of just .255 (20 PA’s) over the past seven days (1 games) — 2nd best in NL over the last week; League Avg: .642 — 97th Percentile.
Robert Gasser has not walked any of the 20 batters that he has faced over the past seven days (1 games) — tied for best in NL over the last week; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .105 (2-for-19) against Robert Gasser — 8th best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .236 — 93rd Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 31-64 (.326) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Pirates are just 25-25 (.500) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .616.
The Pirates are 18-10 (.643) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Pirates are just 114-27 (.809) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 27-51 (.346) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .212.
The Brewers are 41-96 (.299) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Brewers are 48-14 (.774) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .690.
The Brewers are 51-31 (.622) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .327 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .384.
The Pirates are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
The Pirates are batting just .220 with two outs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .373 against RHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have chased 12% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .340 (1,371 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of .771 (1,371 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .695.
Brewers hitters are slugging .431 against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .384.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers are throwing just 3.73 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Pirates have won 40% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The average home run distance against the Pirates pitchers this season is 405.7 feet — highest in MLB; League Avg: 396.0
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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