- The Pirates are -120 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Pirates vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Pirates / Cardinals TV Channel: FDMW | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (-120) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (+100) on Tuesday, May 6, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45pm EDT in St. Louis, MO, MO.
This season, the Pirates are 12-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 18-18 ATS.
Pirates vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 3-3, 2.74 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Matthew Liberatore 2-3, 3.44 ERA
Pirates vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | -1.5 +150 | O 7 -102 | -120 |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -185 | U 7 -118 | +100 |
Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 55.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 20 games (+17.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 59% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 away games (+9.35 Units / 104% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.60 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alec Burleson has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+15.50 Units / 388% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.10 Units / 65% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Matthew Liberatore has hit the Walks Allowed Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 71% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 7 away games (+7.55 Units / 86% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.10 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+4.05 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 away games (+3.00 Units / 57% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+6.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+6.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games at home (+4.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.95 Units / 31% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 12-24 against the Run Line (-17.1 Units / -36.46% ROI).
- 12-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.25 Units / -29.73% ROI
- 16-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.5 Units / -6.22% ROI
- 18-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.5 Units / 0.87% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 18-18 against the Run Line (-5.2 Units / -10.07% ROI).
- 17-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -5.01% ROI
- 21-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.65 Units / 11.75% ROI
- 13-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.4 Units / -18.25% ROI
Cardinals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Alexander Canario (PIT) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Matt Gorski (PIT) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Cardinals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Brendan Donovan (STL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Tommy Pham (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Cardinals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Alexander Canario (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Matt Gorski (PIT) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Cardinals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore (STL) | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paul Skenes has an ERA of 1.24 (80.0 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 4.16 — 100th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has allowed an OBP of just .222 (63 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .300 — 97th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has allowed a slugging percentage of just .227 (63 Total Bases / 278 ABs) on the road since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .410 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .476 (10-for-21) against Paul Skenes on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .344 — sixth Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matthew Liberatore has allowed 6 home runs on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — most among NL Relievers — 100th Percentile.
Matthew Liberatore has not walked any of the 97 batters that they have faced against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Matthew Liberatore has walked 4% of left-handed batters since last season — 9th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — 91st Percentile.
Matthew Liberatore has walked 2% of batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 98th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates are just 7-56 (.111) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates are just 11-38 (.224) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .365.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cardinals are just 53-59 (.473) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Pirates (24th best runs scored) today.
The Cardinals are just 4-13 (.235) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Cardinals were 69-1 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Cardinals were 18-9 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have chased 11% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
The Pirates are batting just .113 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .334 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 33% since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cardinals are batting .211 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .150.
The Cardinals have a winning percentage of just 23% on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Cardinals are batting .291 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Cardinals hitters struck out just 351 times in 1,755 PA’s (20%) against LHP in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 53% of the time since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 56% of the time this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 6% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Cardinals pitchers have struck out in the zone 47% of the time since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cardinals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 19% in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
More MLB Reading:
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