- The Cardinals are -175 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Pirates / Cardinals TV Channel: FDMW | SNPT | MLBN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-175) on Wednesday, May 7, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:15pm EDT in St. Louis, MO, MO.
This season, the Pirates are 12-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 19-18 ATS.
Pirates vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 1-3, 4.39 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Sonny Gray 3-1, 4.12 ERA
Pirates vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -150 | O 7.5 -110 | +145 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -110 | -175 |
Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 60.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 20 games (+17.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 58% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.00 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alec Burleson has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+15.50 Units / 388% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+11.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jordan Walker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.25 Units / 65% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 away games (+8.70 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.25 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 away games (+5.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.10 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 away games (+4.05 Units / 49% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+7.85 Units / 46% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+7.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 35 games (+5.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games at home (+4.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.95 Units / 35% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 12-25 against the Run Line (-18.1 Units / -37.79% ROI).
- 12-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.45 Units / -31.72% ROI
- 16-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.65 Units / -11.5% ROI
- 19-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.5 Units / 3.66% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 19-18 against the Run Line (-4.2 Units / -7.87% ROI).
- 18-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -2.45% ROI
- 21-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.5 Units / 13.56% ROI
- 14-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.4 Units / -23.01% ROI
Cardinals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Lars Nootbaar (STL) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
Cardinals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar (STL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Masyn Winn (STL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Cardinals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Brendan Donovan (STL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
| Masyn Winn (STL) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Cardinals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
| Sonny Gray (STL) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has allowed an OPS of .868 (337 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .665 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .298 (91-for-305) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — second Percentile.
Opponents batted .314 (77-for-245) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of .521 (159 Total Bases / 305 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .377 — second Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sonny Gray had a strikeout rate of 58% (203/350) with two-strikes in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of 35% (151/426) against Sonny Gray in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed an OBP of just .170 (441 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — 97th Percentile.
Sonny Gray allowed an OBP of just .160 (350 PA’s) with two-strikes in the 2024 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 98th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Pirates are just 7-57 (.109) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates are just 12-20 (.375) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cardinals are just 0-15 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .043.
The Cardinals are 19-12 (.613) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Cardinals are just 4-13 (.235) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Cardinals were 69-1 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have struck out in 26% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .376 since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 32% since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 32% since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cardinals are batting .207 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .150.
The Cardinals are batting .353 on changeups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
The Cardinals have a winning percentage of just 23% on the road since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Cardinals are batting .258 this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Pirates pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 56% of the time this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
More MLB Reading:
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