- The Cubs are -135 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Cubs Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Pirates / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-125) on Thursday, May 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Pirates are 19-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 25-19 ATS.
Pirates vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jared Jones 2-4, 2.70 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele 0-0, 4.73 ERA
Pirates vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -105 | +105 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -115 | -125 |
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 52.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jared Triolo has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 26 games (+19.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 11 games (+18.80 Units / 171% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+14.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+14.10 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 26 games (+9.90 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 games at home (+17.90 Units / 163% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+15.95 Units / 44% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+10.80 Units / 77% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 28 games (+10.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+10.05 Units / 25% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 33 games (+16.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games (+11.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 33 games (+7.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.35 Units / 29% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 42 games (+9.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 14 games (+4.35 Units / 26% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 22-22 against the Run Line (-2.74 Units / -4.63% ROI).
- 19-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.1 Units / -15.47% ROI
- 19-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.9 Units / -10.09% ROI
- 22-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.53 Units / 3.17% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 25-19 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 3.13% ROI).
- 25-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.7 Units / 14.62% ROI
- 18-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.65 Units / -19.86% ROI
- 25-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.25 Units / 10.88% ROI
Cubs vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Connor Joe (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Cubs vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Connor Joe (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Nick Madrigal (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Cubs vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Connor Joe (PIT) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
Cubs vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Steele (CHC) | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
| Jared Jones (PIT) | 6.5 +130 | 6.5 -175 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a miss rate of 39% (82/208) against Jared Jones this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 36% (140/384) against Jared Jones this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Jared Jones has a strike rate of 74% (156/211) in two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Jared Jones has a strike rate of 72% (482/670) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (345/771) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown fastballs 74% of the time (572/771) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (229/499) when behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (563/1,283) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Pirates are just 25-25 (.500) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .616.
The Pirates are 45-8 (.849) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .737.
The Pirates are just 14-21 (.400) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are 18-10 (.643) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cubs are just 39-39 (.500) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Cubs are just 10-14 (.417) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are 24-20 (.545) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .426.
The Cubs are just 16-30 (.348) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .619 (1,187 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .695.
The Pirates are batting just .194 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .229.
Pirates hitters have 12 extra-base hits out of 53 total hits (just 23%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Pirates are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .452 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .781 (371 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .349 (371 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .846 (427 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .682.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,321 of 14,171 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 2 of 107 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 6.28 (53.0 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.65.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have won 67% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 37 of 394 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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