- The Cubs are -125 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Cubs Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Pirates / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-125) on Sunday, May 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Pirates are 21-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 25-22 ATS.
Pirates vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 4-3, 3.95 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon 3-1, 1.61 ERA
Pirates vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -115 | +105 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -105 | -125 |
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Connor Joe has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games (+15.80 Units / 113% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+12.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+9.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 22 games (+9.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.10 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+16.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 14 games at home (+14.90 Units / 106% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+14.10 Units / 88% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 32 games (+11.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 30 games (+11.10 Units / 37% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 36 games (+15.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+10.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 36 games (+5.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 25 away games (+2.75 Units / 10% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 games (+8.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+5.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 43 games (+4.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.10 Units / 62% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 25-22 against the Run Line (+0.76 Units / 1.2% ROI).
- 21-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.1 Units / -12.79% ROI
- 21-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -4 Units / -7.73% ROI
- 23-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.23 Units / 0.45% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 25-22 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -2.8% ROI).
- 26-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.45 Units / 11.34% ROI
- 20-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.75 Units / -16.89% ROI
- 26-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.95 Units / 7.65% ROI
Cubs vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Cubs vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Cubs vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Connor Joe (PIT) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Cubs vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (55/165) against Mitch Keller this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .281 (163-for-580) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — seventh Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .351 (646 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .286 — seventh Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 38% (32/85) against Mitch Keller this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jameson Taillon has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.8 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season (160 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 89.9
Jameson Taillon has a strike rate of 71% (999/1,415) against right-handed batters since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 97th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 20 of 800 right-handed batters (3%) since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 11% (6/53) against Jameson Taillon when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Pirates are just 128-68 (.653) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Pirates are 46-8 (.852) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .738.
The Pirates are just 77-111 (.410) on the road since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .475.
The Pirates are just 66-91 (.420) after a win since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cubs are just 16-30 (.348) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .425.
The Cubs are just 40-39 (.506) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Cubs are 25-21 (.543) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .426.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .329 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .386.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .178 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Pirates are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
The Pirates are batting just .234 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .475 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .369.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .779 (2,117 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Cubs hitters are slugging .447 against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Cubs are batting .267 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 3 of 116 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers are throwing just 3.75 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 20 double plays in 352 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.4 MPH since last season (5,223 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 44% of their games since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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