- The Diamondbacks are -185 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Pirates / Diamondbacks TV Channel: DBTV | SNPT | MLBN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+155) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-185) on Monday, May 26, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ, AZ.
This season, the Pirates are 19-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 24-29 ATS.
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Andrew Heaney 3-3, 2.93 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson 1-1, 4.55 ERA
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -130 | O 9 +100 | +155 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +105 | U 9 -120 | -185 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Monday‘s MLB game with 61.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 away games (+10.00 Units / 167% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 58% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games (+8.45 Units / 62% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Gabriel Moreno has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+14.00 Units / 280% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.35 Units / 54% ROI)
- Randal Grichuk has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 49% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 53 games (+12.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 42 games (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.30 Units / 36% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 37 games (+13.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 37 games (+10.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+8.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games at home (+3.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 47% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 22-32 against the Run Line (-16.5 Units / -23.64% ROI).
- 19-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.85 Units / -23.12% ROI
- 20-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.75 Units / -23.27% ROI
- 31-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.05 Units / 15.16% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 24-29 against the Run Line (-9.81 Units / -14.15% ROI).
- 26-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.1 Units / -8.68% ROI
- 23-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.8 Units / -9.93% ROI
- 26-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.5 Units / 0.86% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Gabriel Moreno (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Josh Naylor (ARI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr (ARI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney (PIT) | 3.5 -118 | 3.5 -110 |
| Ryne Nelson (ARI) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .125 (5-for-40) against Andrew Heaney’s elevated fastball this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .218 — 93rd Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has allowed a slugging percentage of .475 (164 Total Bases / 345 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .381 — sixth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .115 (6-for-52) against Andrew Heaney when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .246 — 98th Percentile.
64% of Andrew Heaney’s strikeouts are in the zone this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 92nd Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryne Nelson had an ERA of 8.25 (55.2 IP) at home in 2023 — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 4.14 — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 17% (20/120) against Ryne Nelson this season — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 28% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 32% (90/280) against Ryne Nelson since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 85 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 38% (91/240) against Ryne Nelson this season — 2nd lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 47% — second Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Pirates are just 9-62 (.127) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates are just 8-46 (.148) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Diamondbacks are 154-40 (.790) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
The Diamondbacks are just 19-6 (.760) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Diamondbacks are 58-50 (.537) on the road since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .469.
The Diamondbacks are 17-70 (.193) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .140.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .206 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .507 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .588 (922 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .595 (630 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .703.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters had an OBP of .337 (6,284 PA’s) in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Diamondbacks hitters had an OBP of .347 (3,080 PA’s) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Diamondbacks batted .276 at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .330 (10,192 PA’s) against RHP since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates have won just 8% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 35% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a in-zone of just 48% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
More MLB Reading:
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