- The Pirates are -160 favorites vs the Marlins
- Pirates vs Marlins Over / Under today: 6.5 Runs
- Pirates / Marlins TV Channel: FDFL | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (-150) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+125) on Thursday, March 27, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami, FL, FL, USA.
This preseason, the Pirates were 9-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins were 9-10 ATS.
Pirates vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | -1.5 +125 | O 6.5 -115 | -150 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -155 | U 6.5 -105 | +125 |
Pirates vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 60.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+8.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Joey Bart has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+8.05 Units / 51% ROI)
- Paul Skenes has hit the Earned Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.40 Units / 69% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games (+6.45 Units / 129% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonah Bride has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games at home (+15.00 Units / 188% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 10 games at home (+6.65 Units / 67% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+6.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+6.00 Units / 16% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 74 away games (+7.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 67 of their last 123 games (+5.40 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 away games (+2.55 Units / 62% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 81 games at home (+31.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 70 games (+18.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 44 games at home (+11.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 67 games (+11.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 67 games (+10.15 Units / 15% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread last season, the Pirates were 9-12 against the Run Line (-3.25 Units / -12.97% ROI).
- 9-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.5 Units / -9.9% ROI
- 11-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.05 Units / -0.22% ROI
- 10-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.15 Units / -9.27% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread last season, the Marlins were 9-10 against the Run Line (-4.98 Units / -18.88% ROI).
- 8-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -0.99% ROI
- 13-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.55 Units / 35.87% ROI
- 5-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.2 Units / -44.23% ROI
Marlins vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Matt Mervis (MIA) | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Griffin Conine (MIA) | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -1600 |
Marlins vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Pham (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Marlins vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -285 |
| Tommy Pham (PIT) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -295 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -325 |
Marlins vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | 6.5 -175 | 6.5 +135 |
| Sandy Alcantara (MIA) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in 2024 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in 2024 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates were just 7-37 (.159) when allowing 2 or more home runs in 2024 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Pirates are just 42-61 (.408) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season They play the Brewers (fourth best runs allowed) today.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Marlins were just 26-19 (.578) when they had 10 or more hits in 2024 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .750.
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in 2024 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in 2024 They play the Twins (11th best runs scored) today.
The Marlins were just 7-42 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs in 2024 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .227 on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Pirates are batting just .236 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .177 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .309 (8,889 PA’s) at home since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins had a winning percentage of just 37% at home last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .296 (4,681 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,697 of 18,660 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates won just 29% of home games in which their opponents scored first last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 4.50 (2209.0 IP) at home since the 2022 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.
The average home run distance against the Pirates pitchers last season is 402.2 feet — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 397.5
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 4.73 (1489.0 IP) at home since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.11.
More MLB Reading:
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