- The Marlins are -135 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates / Marlins TV Channel: BSFL | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-135) on Thursday, March 28, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -190 | O 7.5 -110 | +115 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 -110 | -135 |
Pirates vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Thursday‘s game with 53.6% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 away games (+3.30 Units / 165% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+1.85 Units / 185% ROI)
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Under in his last away game (+1.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Alika Williams has hit the Runs Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Under in his last game (+1.90 Units / 190% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Runs Over in his last game at home (+1.85 Units / 185% ROI)
- JT Chargois has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last game at home (+1.80 Units / 180% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+4.19 Units / 5% ROI)
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.2 MPH on inside pitches since the 2022 season (377 balls in play) — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 85.7
Mitch Keller had a strikeout rate of 54% (61/113) in PAs ending on fastballs away in the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
128 of Mitch Keller’s 210 strikeouts (61%) came on fastballs in the 2023 season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 91st Percentile.
Mitch Keller elevated 41% of his pitches (259/627) when ahead in the count in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 97th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
40% of Jesus Luzardo’s called strikeouts were elevated in the 2023 season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 91st Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 50% (181/361) against Jesus Luzardo on breaking pitches in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo located his fastball inside 43% of the time (623/1,449) in the 2023 season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .377 (23 GB hits out of 61 GBs) against Jesus Luzardo with the shift in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .241 — second Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Pirates are 14-6 (.700) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .584.
The Pirates were 34-8 (.810) when they had 10 or more hits in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Pirates are just 11-17 (.393) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 56-80 (.412) after a win since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Marlins were 36-15 (.706) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Marlins are just 21-73 (.223) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Marlins are just 103-24 (.811) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .871.
The Marlins were 42-19 (.689) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams in 2023 — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates have answered-back in just 22% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Pirates have answered-back in just 21% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates hitters chased 26% of pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Pirates answered-back in just 22% of innings after an opponent scored in late innings in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters had 105 extra-base hits out of 357 total hits (just 29%) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters grounded into 158 double plays in 1,125 opportunities (14%) in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 54% of their games in the 2023 season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 53% of their games on the road since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Pirates pitchers had allowed a run 36% of the time after scoring a run on offense in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 2,021 times since the 2022 season — 4th most in MLB.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 1,529 times in the 2023 season — 4th fewest in MLB.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 27% in close and late situations in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Marlins vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Calvin Faucher (Miami Marlins): Biceps, Out
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Finger, Day-To-Day
- Jazz Chisholm (Miami Marlins): Toe, Out
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, Out
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, Out
- Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh Pirates): Achilles, Out
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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