- The Pirates are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
- Pirates vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Pirates / Marlins TV Channel: FDFL | SNPT | MLBN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (-145) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+120) on Friday, March 28, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Miami, FL, USA.
This season, the Pirates are 1-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 2-0 ATS.
Pirates vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Connor Gillispie 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | -1.5 +120 | O 8 -105 | -145 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -145 | U 8 -115 | +120 |
Pirates vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Friday‘s MLB game with 56.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Mitch Keller has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+5.55 Units / 51% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Earned Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+4.65 Units / 49% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Strikeouts Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 51% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 74 away games (+7.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 67 of their last 123 games (+5.40 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 away games (+2.55 Units / 62% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 81 games at home (+31.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 70 games (+18.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 44 games at home (+11.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 67 games (+11.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 67 games (+10.15 Units / 15% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 1-2 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -36.9% ROI).
- 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.35 Units / -38.57% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -38.24% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 28.13% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 2-0 against the Run Line (+2 Units / 67.8% ROI).
- 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.25 Units / 62.5% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 45.45% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -50% ROI
Marlins vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Tommy Pham (PIT) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Marlins vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Pham (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Marlins vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Tommy Pham (PIT) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Gillispie (MIA) | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -155 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller allowed a slugging percentage of .563 (138 Total Bases / 245 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller allowed an OPS of .927 (274 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .671 — first Percentile.
Opponents batted .314 (77-for-245) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller allowed an OBP of .364 (272 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — first Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Connor Gillispie has limited playing time.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in 2024 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in 2024 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates are just 115-25 (.821) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Pirates were just 65-7 (.903) when leading entering the 9th inning in 2024 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in 2024 They play the Twins (11th best runs scored) today.
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in 2024 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins were just 26-19 (.578) when they had 10 or more hits in 2024 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .750.
The Marlins were just 39-13 (.750) when leading entering the 7th inning in 2024 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .236 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Pirates hitters have 1,376 strikeouts in 5,410 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .380 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Pirates hitters have 881 strikeouts in 3,527 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins were just 4-17 (.190) against the run line (-61.9% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) in 2024 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
The Marlins had a winning percentage of just 37% at home last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Marlins are just 17-50 (.254) against the run line (-49.2% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .454.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,697 of 18,660 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 454.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 465.8
The Pirates won just 29% of home games in which their opponents scored first last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 4.50 (2209.0 IP) at home since the 2022 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
More MLB Reading:
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