- The Marlins are -130 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates / Marlins TV Channel: BSFL | MLBN | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-130) on Friday, March 29, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Pirates are 1-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 0-1 ATS.
Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -185 | O 8.5 -115 | +110 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +150 | U 8.5 -105 | -130 |
Pirates vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Friday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 away games (+3.60 Units / 180% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 away games (+3.35 Units / 167% ROI)
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 away games (+3.30 Units / 165% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Runs Over in his last game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+1.85 Units / 185% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 games at home (+3.20 Units / 160% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Nick Fortes has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Under in his last game (+1.90 Units / 190% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+1.65 Units / 165% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+4.19 Units / 5% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 1-0 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 48.78% ROI).
- 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.05 Units / 105% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 0-1 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -100% ROI).
- 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -100% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 14% (46/331) against Martin Perez in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Martin Perez had a strikeout rate of just 17% (21/125) on low non-fastballs in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 34% — third Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of just 18% (137/770) against Martin Perez in the 2023 season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 26% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 21% (13/63) against Martin Perez on elevated fastballs in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 99th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 49% (34/70) against A.J. Puk on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd best among in NL; League Avg: 30% — 98th Percentile.
A.J. Puk’s K:BB ratio was 14.5 (29/2) vs left-handed batters in the 2023 season — 2nd best among in NL; League Avg: 2.4 — 98th Percentile.
A.J. Puk walked 2 of 76 left-handed batters (3%) in the 2023 season — 2nd best among in NL; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
A.J. Puk walked 13 of 242 batters (5%) in the 2023 season — 6th best among in NL; League Avg: 9% — 94th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Pirates are just 66-97 (.405) on the road since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .474.
The Pirates are just 132-160 (.452) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Pirates are just 56-80 (.412) after a win since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Pirates are 14-6 (.700) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .585.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Marlins were 36-15 (.706) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Marlins are 25-122 (.170) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Marlins are 93-13 (.877) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Marlins are 43-6 (.878) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates have answered-back in just 22% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates hitters chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 40% on the road since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Pirates hitters had a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 60%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters grounded into 158 double plays in 1,125 opportunities (14%) in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Marlins hitters had 149 extra-base hits out of 547 total hits (just 27%) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates won 40% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed the 1st hardest ball in play hit (115.1 MPH) in the 2023 season (; League Avg: 117.2).
The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 454.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 466.0
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 20% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 1,529 times in the 2023 season — 4th fewest in MLB.
Marlins vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Calvin Faucher (Miami Marlins): Biceps, Out
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Finger, Day-To-Day
- Jazz Chisholm (Miami Marlins): Toe, Out
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, Out
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, Out
- Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh Pirates): Achilles, Out
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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