- The Pirates are -105 favorites vs the Marlins
- Pirates / Marlins TV Channel: BSFL | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates () visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins () on Saturday, March 30, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Pirates are 2-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 0-2 ATS.
Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | O | ||
| Marlins | U |
Pirates vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Saturday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Henry Davis has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 away games (+8.40 Units / 62% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Strikeouts Over in 21 of his last 33 games (+7.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 32 games (+7.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+7.30 Units / 183% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+14.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 48 games (+11.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 50 games (+10.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+8.75 Units / 51% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+4.19 Units / 5% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 2-0 against the Run Line (+2 Units / 54.79% ROI).
- 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.3 Units / 115% ROI
- 2-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +2 Units / 95.24% ROI
- 0-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.3 Units / -100% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 0-2 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -100% ROI).
- 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.7 Units / -100% ROI
- 2-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +2 Units / 95.24% ROI
- 0-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.3 Units / -100% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jared Jones is making his MLB debut today.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Weathers has limited playing time.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Pirates were 34-8 (.810) when they had 10 or more hits in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Pirates are just 140-186 (.429) since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 113-58 (.661) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Pirates are just 67-97 (.409) on the road since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .474.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Marlins are 13-144 (.083) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Marlins were 7-65 (.097) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Marlins were 36-15 (.706) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Marlins were 24-3 (.889) when they had 5 or more XBH in 2023 — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .225 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Pirates are batting just .153 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Pirates hitters have 2,007 strikeouts in 8,208 PA’s (24%) against RHP since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .305 (8,208 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters had 149 extra-base hits out of 547 total hits (just 27%) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates won 40% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,185 of 12,537 batters (10%) since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 2,021 times since the 2022 season — 4th most in MLB.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Calvin Faucher (Miami Marlins): Biceps, Out
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Finger, Day-To-Day
- Jazz Chisholm (Miami Marlins): Toe, Out
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, Out
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, Out
- Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh Pirates): Achilles, Out
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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