- The Mets are -160 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Pirates / Mets TV Channel: SNY | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-160) on Wednesday, April 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Pirates are 11-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 9-8 ATS.
Pirates vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 1-0, 4.11 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 1-1, 3.00 ERA
Pirates vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -155 | O 8 -120 | +135 |
| Mets | -1.5 +125 | U 8 +100 | -160 |
Pirates vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 53.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+6.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.95 Units / 68% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Strikeouts Over in 19 of his last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 7 away games (+4.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 19 of his last 32 games (+4.80 Units / 12% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- DJ Stewart has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+7.85 Units / 56% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jose Butto has hit the Strikeouts Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.75 Units / 78% ROI)
- Luis Severino has hit the Strikeouts Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- Adrian Houser has hit the Strikeouts Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+5.15 Units / 48% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 108 games (+16.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 12-6 against the Run Line (+4.7 Units / 18.11% ROI).
- 11-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 25.51% ROI
- 10-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.25 Units / 6.31% ROI
- 8-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.95 Units / -14.9% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 9-8 against the Run Line (+2.75 Units / 13.75% ROI).
- 9-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 1.23% ROI
- 8-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.75 Units / -9.51% ROI
- 9-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.26% ROI
Mets vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Francisco Alvarez (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Tyrone Taylor (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Mets vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jeff McNeil (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Mets vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Alvarez (NYM) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jeff McNeil (NYM) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Mets vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 13% (17/133) against Bailey Falter on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 0 Percentile.
Bailey Falter has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.5 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since last season (53 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: 90.3
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 58% of the time (84/145) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter located 44% of his pitches inside (572/1,296) in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a swing rate of 57% (80/140) against Luis Severino this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 98th Percentile.
Luis Severino allowed an OPS of .921 (417 PA’s) in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .736 — second Percentile.
Luis Severino allowed a slugging percentage of .450 (103 Total Bases / 229 ABs) when behind in the count in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .310 — first Percentile.
Luis Severino allowed an OPS of 1.041 (105 PA’s) with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .742 — third Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Pirates are 41-8 (.837) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
The Pirates are just 65-15 (.812) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .855.
The Pirates are just 26-41 (.388) after a road win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.
The Pirates were 30-10 (.750) when they hit 2 or more home runs in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .690.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mets were just 6-39 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Mets are just 3-77 (.038) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Mets are 160-2 (.988) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mets are just 8-42 (.160) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .233 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Pirates hitters slugged just .511 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .677 (4,062 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .500 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of .739 (8,919 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .812 (247 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .364 (247 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers are throwing just 3.59 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Pirates pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 18 double plays in 120 opportunities (15%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,231 of 13,177 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 159 of 1,566 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have walked 662 of 6,746 batters (10%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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