- The Mets are -160 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Mets Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Pirates / Mets TV Channel: SNY | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-160) on Monday, May 12, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Pirates are 13-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 22-18 ATS.
Pirates vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 3-4, 2.78 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 2-2, 3.05 ERA
Pirates vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -180 | O 7 +105 | +135 |
| Mets | -1.5 +145 | U 7 -125 | -160 |
Pirates vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s MLB game with 54.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Paul Skenes has hit the Earned Runs Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+7.25 Units / 41% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.20 Units / 56% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brett Baty has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+20.90 Units / 522% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 41% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+6.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+5.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- David Peterson has hit the Pitching Outs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 89% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 away games (+9.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+6.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.15 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 away games (+3.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.00 Units / 30% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- No trends found
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 14-26 against the Run Line (-17.5 Units / -33.72% ROI).
- 13-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.2 Units / -31.28% ROI
- 16-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.05 Units / -18.36% ROI
- 22-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.5 Units / 10.19% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 22-18 against the Run Line (+6.4 Units / 12.92% ROI).
- 25-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.3 Units / 7.26% ROI
- 16-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.6 Units / -21.74% ROI
- 23-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.2 Units / 11.86% ROI
Mets vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Mets vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Mets vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Mets vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peterson (NYM) | 5.5 -118 | 5.5 -110 |
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paul Skenes has allowed an OBP of just .139 (108 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 100th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has a in-zone of just 14% (67/464) vs left-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Paul Skenes has allowed an OBP of just .139 (108 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .235 — 100th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has allowed an OPS of just .454 (72 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .684 — 96th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 71% (29/41) against David Peterson when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.3 MPH on the 211 breaking pitches put in play against him since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: 87.6.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 52% (71/136) against David Peterson on low non-fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 56% (49/87) against David Peterson on sliders since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Pirates are just 7-58 (.108) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Pirates are just 11-38 (.224) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .365.
The Pirates are just 0-22 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .044.
The Pirates are just 14-22 (.389) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mets are 12-3 (.800) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 8-72 (.100) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Mets are 10-4 (.714) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Pirates (24th best runs scored) today.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .328 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Pirates hitters have chased 11% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .679 (9,769 PA’s) against RHP since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .374 against RHP since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Mets hitters have struck out in just 20% of it’s PA’s against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets hitters have chased 18% of pitches out of the zone in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Mets hitters are slugging .454 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .375.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 53% of the time since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Pirates have won just 11% of games in which their opponents scored first since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Pirates have won just 11% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers walked 591 of 6,084 batters (10%) in 2023 — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters since the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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