- The Mets are -275 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Pirates / Mets TV Channel: SNY | SNPT | MLBN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+230) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-295) on Wednesday, May 14, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens, NY.
This season, the Pirates are 14-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 23-20 ATS.
Pirates vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 2-3, 4.33 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Clay Holmes 5-1, 2.74 ERA
Pirates vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 +110 | O 8 -110 | +230 |
| Mets | -1.5 -135 | U 8 -110 | -295 |
Pirates vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 68.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.30 Units / 56% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 away games (+12.00 Units / 300% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.65 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+14.75 Units / 59% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+10.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+8.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+7.85 Units / 98% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 42 games (+12.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+9.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.20 Units / 83% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 away games (+3.00 Units / 24% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 21 games at home (+10.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 29 games (+8.69 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.14 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+7.85 Units / 25% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 17-26 against the Run Line (-14.3 Units / -25.74% ROI).
- 14-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.25 Units / -29.44% ROI
- 16-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.2 Units / -21.61% ROI
- 24-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.5 Units / 13.71% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 23-20 against the Run Line (+5.89 Units / 11.18% ROI).
- 28-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.3 Units / 11.32% ROI
- 16-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.75 Units / -24.74% ROI
- 25-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.2 Units / 15.29% ROI
Mets vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Tyrone Taylor (NYM) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Mets vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Mets vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -115 |
| Clay Holmes (NYM) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .095 (4-for-42) against Bailey Falter over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .240 — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has a strikeout rate of just 11% (8 SO in 71 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — fourth Percentile.
Bailey Falter has allowed an OBP of just .056 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (2 game{NumGameSuffix}) — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .295 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 17% (18/109) against Bailey Falter this season — tied for 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Clay Holmes has a in-zone of 21% (85/399) vs left-handed batters since last season — best among NL Relievers; League Avg: 5% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 70% (54/77) against Clay Holmes in two-strike counts since last season — highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a groundball rate of 75% (56/75) against Clay Holmes in 2023 — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Clay Holmes has allowed an OPS of just .232 (89 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .483 — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Pirates are just 7-59 (.106) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates are just 11-39 (.220) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .366.
The Pirates are just 0-15 (.000) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 10-4 (.714) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Pirates (24th best runs scored) today.
The Mets are 12-3 (.800) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Mets are 8-72 (.100) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .325 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Pirates hitters struck out 417 times in 1,598 PA’s (26%) against LHP in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Pirates have answered-back in just 17% of innings after an opponent scores this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .630 (1,171 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have a winning percentage of 81% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 57%.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .179 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .756 (1,328 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 81% at home since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 57%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Pirates pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 5% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 55% of the time this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 9% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Mets pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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