- The Pirates are -160 favorites vs the Nationals
- Pirates vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Pirates / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (-160) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+135) on Wednesday, April 3, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Pirates are 5-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 2-2 ATS.
Pirates vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 0-0, 6.01 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Pirates vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | -1.5 +100 | O 8.5 +100 | -160 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -120 | U 8.5 -120 | +135 |
Pirates vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 61.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Henry Davis has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.40 Units / 52% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 32 games (+7.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+7.10 Units / 52% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.00 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josiah Gray has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.95 Units / 61% ROI)
- Josiah Gray has hit the Strikeouts Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- Patrick Corbin has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 14 games at home (+4.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 18 games at home (+4.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- Josiah Gray has hit the Earned Runs Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+4.20 Units / 41% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 144 games (+23.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 3 games (+3.15 Units / 94% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 156 games (+2.30 Units / 1% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 5-0 against the Run Line (+6.1 Units / 84.14% ROI).
- 5-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.55 Units / 105.71% ROI
- 5-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +5 Units / 91.74% ROI
- 0-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.55 Units / -100% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 2-2 against the Run Line (-1.25 Units / -21.37% ROI).
- 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.45 Units / -35.8% ROI
- 4-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +4 Units / 91.95% ROI
- 0-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.45 Units / -100% ROI
Nationals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cruz | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Reynolds | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| McCutchen | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Tellez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Taylor | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Nationals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Keller | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
| Williams | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 50% (12/24) against Mitch Keller this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 41% (12/29) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 41% (12/29) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strike rate of 78% (18/23) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 96th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 51% (619/1,221) of the time since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams has a strike rate of just 51% (386/763) on sliders since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Trevor Williams has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 51% (335/660) of the time since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a swing rate of just 34% (168/498) against Trevor Williams on sliders in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 49% — first Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Pirates are just 40-70 (.364) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Pirates were 34-8 (.810) when they had 10 or more hits in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Pirates are 14-6 (.700) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Pirates are just 115-58 (.665) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Nationals are just 39-64 (.379) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Nationals are just 60-103 (.368) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.
The Nationals are just 21-37 (.362) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Nationals are just 37-73 (.336) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 105 of their 243 plate appearances (43%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Pirates have scored 21 runs with two outs this season — most in MLB.
The Pirates are batting just .236 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .498 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .379 (33 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Nationals hitters have just 347 strikeouts in 1,901 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters struck out just 1,149 times in 6,085 PA’s (19%) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,200 of 12,700 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Pirates pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% in late innings this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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