- The Pirates are -130 favorites vs the Nationals
- Pirates vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Pirates / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | SNPT | ESPN+
The Pittsburgh Pirates (-120) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+100) on Thursday, April 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Pirates are 5-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 3-2 ATS.
Pirates vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Martin Perez 0-0, 2.08 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray 0-1, 15.77 ERA
Pirates vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -120 | -120 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -165 | U 9 +100 | +100 |
Pirates vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 58.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Henry Davis has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.40 Units / 61% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+7.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+7.10 Units / 52% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+6.90 Units / 99% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josiah Gray has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.95 Units / 61% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the RBIs Over in his last 3 games (+6.10 Units / 203% ROI)
- Josiah Gray has hit the Strikeouts Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 4 games (+5.10 Units / 127% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in his last 4 games (+5.05 Units / 65% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 144 games (+23.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 3 games (+3.15 Units / 94% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 156 games (+2.30 Units / 1% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 5-1 against the Run Line (+5.1 Units / 61.82% ROI).
- 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.05 Units / 60% ROI
- 5-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.9 Units / 59.54% ROI
- 1-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.55 Units / -68.42% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 3-2 against the Run Line (-0.25 Units / -3.52% ROI).
- 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -2.97% ROI
- 4-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.9 Units / 53.21% ROI
- 1-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.45 Units / -62.16% ROI
Nationals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Meneses | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Adams | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Lipscomb | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Ruiz | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Rosario | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -2500 |
Nationals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gray | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Martin Perez has allowed an OBP of .562 (16 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .297 — third Percentile.
Martin Perez has a strike rate of just 46% (12/26) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 14% (46/331) against Martin Perez in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 14% (48/343) against Martin Perez since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
28 of Josiah Gray’s breaking pitch strikeouts were backdoor in the 2023 season — 2nd most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: nan — 99th Percentile.
28 of Josiah Gray’s 95 breaking pitch strikeouts (29%) were backdoor in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 98th Percentile.
Josiah Gray has walked 91 of 639 left-handed batters (14%) since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
28 of Josiah Gray’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since last season — 2nd most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: nan — 99th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Pirates are just 69-99 (.411) on the road since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .474.
The Pirates were 34-8 (.810) when they had 10 or more hits in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Pirates are 14-6 (.700) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Pirates are just 142-188 (.430) since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Nationals are just 21-37 (.362) after a home win since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Nationals are just 61-103 (.372) at home since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.
The Nationals are just 40-64 (.385) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates have scored 23 runs with two outs this season — most in MLB.
The Pirates are batting .308 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Pirates hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 113 of their 279 plate appearances (41%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .304 (3,948 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .382 (38 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .749.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.77 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,202 of 12,735 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Pirates pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 53% of their games on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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