- The Padres are -160 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Padres Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Pirates / Padres TV Channel: SNPT | PDTV
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-160) on Sunday, June 1, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 5:10pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Pirates are 22-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 29-27 ATS.
Pirates vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Andrew Heaney 3-4, 3.43 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 3-4, 3.63 ERA
Pirates vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -170 | O 8.5 -118 | +135 |
| Padres | -1.5 +140 | U 8.5 -102 | -160 |
Pirates vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 56.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- Alexander Canario has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 59% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+7.20 Units / 103% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+22.10 Units / 246% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+11.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Luis Campusano has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 8 games at home (+10.85 Units / 136% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+12.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 58 games (+11.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 26 games (+11.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 21 games (+5.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+5.50 Units / 48% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+7.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 27 games at home (+7.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+5.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+5.60 Units / 17% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 26-33 against the Run Line (-13.6 Units / -17.81% ROI).
- 22-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.65 Units / -16.41% ROI
- 22-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.05 Units / -23.28% ROI
- 34-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.9 Units / 15.2% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 29-27 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -2.12% ROI).
- 32-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 1.26% ROI
- 23-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.55 Units / -17.38% ROI
- 31-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.15 Units / 8.21% ROI
Padres vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Padres vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Spencer Horwitz (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Padres vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Padres vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Randy Vasquez (SD) | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
| Andrew Heaney (PIT) | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Andrew Heaney has allowed a slugging percentage of .483 (170 Total Bases / 352 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .383 — sixth Percentile.
64% of Andrew Heaney’s strikeouts are on pitches in the zone this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 93rd Percentile.
Andrew Heaney has walked 11% of right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 27% (182/665) against Andrew Heaney since last season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — eighth Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Randy Vasquez struck out just 8% (16/198) of left-handed batters he faced in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has allowed an OBP of .406 (313 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 87 total IP; League Avg: .314 — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a line drive rate of 34% (56/163) against Randy Vasquez in the 2024 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of 30% (101/333) versus Randy Vasquez in the 2024 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Pirates are just 9-63 (.125) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates are just 12-43 (.218) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Pirates are just 15-24 (.385) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Padres are 5-16 (.238) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .132.
The Padres are 18-3 (.857) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Padres were 11-59 (.157) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Padres are 147-24 (.860) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .117 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .148.
Opponents have used a defensive shift against the Pirates on 0% of their plate appearances this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 0%.. *
Pirates hitters have put just 26% of their swings in play in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .151 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .199.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters struck out just 799 times in 4,486 PA’s (18%) against RHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 19% of it’s PA’s against RHP since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres batted .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 51% of the time since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers in 2023 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH since the 2023 season (9,197 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
More MLB Reading:
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