- The Padres are -220 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Pirates / Padres TV Channel: SNPT | PDTV | KFMB
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+180) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-220) on Saturday, May 31, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Pirates are 21-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 29-26 ATS.
Pirates vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 3-3, 3.47 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 1-3, 4.63 ERA
Pirates vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -120 | O 7.5 +100 | +180 |
| Padres | -1.5 +100 | U 7.5 -120 | -220 |
Pirates vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 64.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+8.20 Units / 137% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+7.50 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+23.10 Units / 289% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Dylan Cease has hit the Earned Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.30 Units / 37% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 25 games (+12.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 57 games (+12.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 46 games (+11.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+3.65 Units / 35% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+8.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+7.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+7.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+6.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 43% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 25-33 against the Run Line (-14.6 Units / -19.4% ROI).
- 21-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.5 Units / -19.56% ROI
- 22-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.95 Units / -21.95% ROI
- 33-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.9 Units / 13.9% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 29-26 against the Run Line (-0.45 Units / -0.63% ROI).
- 32-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.2 Units / 4.16% ROI
- 23-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.45 Units / -15.86% ROI
- 30-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.15 Units / 6.74% ROI
Padres vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Padres vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Padres vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Padres vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -135 |
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 7.5 +125 | 7.5 -160 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 49% of the time (116/238) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has a strikeout rate of just 10% (10 SO in 97 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 49% of the time (116/238) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (303/658) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has walked 11% of batters when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of 36% (289/799) against Dylan Cease in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown his slider 58% of the time (116/200) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.
Dylan Cease threw breaking pitches 55% of the time (1,752/3,188) in the 2024 season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Pirates are just 9-63 (.125) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates are just 12-43 (.218) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Padres are 15-78 (.161) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .099.
The Padres were 48-33 (.593) on the road in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
The Padres are 52-14 (.788) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Padres are 18-3 (.857) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Opponents have used a defensive shift against the Pirates on 0% of their plate appearances this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 0%.. *
Pirates hitters are slugging just .315 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.
Pirates hitters have 11 extra-base hits out of 56 total hits (just 20%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Pirates hitters have put just 25% of their swings in play in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Pirates pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres pitchers had a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH since the 2023 season (9,197 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
More MLB Reading:
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