- The Phillies are -150 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Pirates / Phillies TV Channel: NSP+ | SNP+ | MLBN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-150) on Thursday, April 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Pirates are 9-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 5-7 ATS.
Pirates vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jared Jones 1-1, 3.86 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 1-0, 4.22 ERA
Pirates vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -160 | O 9 -110 | +125 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +135 | U 9 -110 | -150 |
Pirates vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 56.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.75 Units / 67% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+8.15 Units / 116% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.65 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 12 games at home (+12.50 Units / 83% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in his last 12 games at home (+12.45 Units / 85% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+10.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- Ranger Suarez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+8.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.70 Units / 35% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+8.78 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 9-3 against the Run Line (+7.6 Units / 48.1% ROI).
- 9-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.05 Units / 44.81% ROI
- 8-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.65 Units / 27.76% ROI
- 4-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.8 Units / -36.23% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 5-7 against the Run Line (-2.55 Units / -17% ROI).
- 6-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -11.73% ROI
- 5-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.8 Units / -20.97% ROI
- 7-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.55 Units / 11.88% ROI
Phillies vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Schwarber | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -275 |
| Turner | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Harper | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| T. Realmuto | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Castellanos | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Phillies vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Turner | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Bohm | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Olivares | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Joe | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Phillies vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Schwarber | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| T. Realmuto | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Turner | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Harper | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| McCutchen | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 41% (43/104) against Jared Jones this season — best among in NL; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Jared Jones has a strike rate of 74% (125/169) this season — highest among in NL; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 59% (69/117) against Jared Jones in non-two strike counts this season — highest among in NL; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 41% (43/104) against Jared Jones this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (19/28) against Ranger Suarez this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (19/28) against Ranger Suarez this season — highest among in NL; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has walked 1 of 41 batters (2%) this season — tied for 2nd best among in NL; League Avg: 8% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 71% (17/24) against Ranger Suarez this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Pirates are 39-8 (.830) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
The Pirates are 15-6 (.714) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Pirates were 34-8 (.810) when they had 10 or more hits in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Pirates are just 123-18 (.872) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Phillies were 7-64 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Phillies are just 13-20 (.394) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Phillies are 106-75 (.586) after a win since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .513.
The Phillies were 19-11 (.633) after a home loss in 2023 — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .508.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting .213 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .163.
Pirates hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 175 of their 514 plate appearances (34%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of .381 (323 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Pirates are batting just .129 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .240 (50 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Phillies hitters are slugging .440 against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Phillies hitters are slugging just .255 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .333 (3,794 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 32 of 465 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers are throwing just 3.56 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Pirates pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 69% of opposing batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Phillies pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .083 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Phillies have won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Phillies pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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