- The Phillies are -160 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Pirates / Phillies TV Channel: NSP+ | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-160) on Friday, April 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Pirates are 9-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 6-7 ATS.
Pirates vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 0-0, 5.23 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 0-1, 4.83 ERA
Pirates vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -150 | O 9.5 -115 | +135 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +125 | U 9.5 -105 | -160 |
Pirates vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 57.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+10.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+9.35 Units / 117% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.65 Units / 49% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 76% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 13 games at home (+13.50 Units / 81% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in his last 13 games at home (+13.45 Units / 83% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+12.05 Units / 55% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+10.55 Units / 58% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+8.78 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 9-4 against the Run Line (+5.95 Units / 34.1% ROI).
- 9-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.05 Units / 34.83% ROI
- 8-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.45 Units / 17.07% ROI
- 5-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.8 Units / -26.67% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 6-7 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -6.56% ROI).
- 7-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -5.43% ROI
- 5-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -4 Units / -27.49% ROI
- 8-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.55 Units / 18.15% ROI
Phillies vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
Phillies vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Edward Olivares (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Whit Merrifield (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Connor Joe (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Phillies vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
Phillies vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +105 |
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has a strikeout rate of just 15% (3 SO in 20 PAs) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 60% of the time (64/107) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.8 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since last season (51 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: 90.4
Bailey Falter allowed a slugging percentage of .604 (81 Total Bases / 134 ABs) on breaking pitches in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .393 — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cristopher Sanchez has had second base stolen on him 4 times this season — tied for 2nd most in MLB — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 69% (61/88) against Cristopher Sanchez’s changeup since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 58% (162/281) against Cristopher Sanchez in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (243/431) against Cristopher Sanchez since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Pirates were 30-10 (.750) when they hit 2 or more home runs in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .690.
The Pirates are just 12-17 (.414) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Pirates are just 26-39 (.400) after a road win since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Pirates are just 70-99 (.414) on the road since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .475.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Phillies are 80-46 (.635) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Phillies are 11-9 (.550) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .427.
The Phillies are 7-70 (.091) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Phillies are 10-130 (.071) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .155 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .685 (8,553 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Pirates are batting just .128 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .501 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .283 (305 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Phillies hitters have 14 extra-base hits out of 59 total hits (just 24%) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .422 against RHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .749 (12,765 PA’s) since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Pirates pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 8 of 223 batters (4%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 69% of opposing batters this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 32 of 496 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .083 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Phillies pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 207 of 2,993 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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