- The Phillies are -150 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Pirates / Phillies TV Channel: NSP+ | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-150) on Saturday, April 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Pirates are 10-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 6-8 ATS.
Pirates vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Marco Gonzales 0-0, 2.46 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Spencer Turnbull 1-0, 0.00 ERA
Pirates vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -160 | O 9 -115 | +125 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +135 | U 9 -105 | -150 |
Pirates vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 56.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+10.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+9.35 Units / 117% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.65 Units / 49% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 76% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 13 games at home (+13.50 Units / 81% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in his last 13 games at home (+13.45 Units / 83% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+12.05 Units / 55% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+10.55 Units / 58% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+8.78 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 10-4 against the Run Line (+6.95 Units / 36.68% ROI).
- 10-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.45 Units / 41.61% ROI
- 8-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.3 Units / 8.39% ROI
- 6-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.8 Units / -18.3% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 6-8 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -12.06% ROI).
- 7-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -13% ROI
- 5-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.15 Units / -32.8% ROI
- 9-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.55 Units / 23.51% ROI
Phillies vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Phillies vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Whit Merrifield (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Phillies vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Phillies vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Turnbull (PHI) | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -110 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marco Gonzales has struck out just 6% (2/32) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 4% (2 SO in 52 PAs) in late innings since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has induced opposing hitters to ground into 2 double plays in 6 opportunities (33%) this season — tied for 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 10% — 96th Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has an average fastball velocity of just 88.7 MPH since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — second Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting just .053 (1-for-19) against Spencer Turnbull this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .253 — 97th Percentile.
Spencer Turnbull has allowed an OBP of just .100 (20 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .329 — 98th Percentile.
Spencer Turnbull has allowed an OBP of just .171 (41 PA’s) this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .315 — 97th Percentile.
Spencer Turnbull has not walked any of the 20 batters that he has faced vs left-handed batters this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Pirates are just 140-163 (.462) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Pirates are just 71-100 (.415) on the road since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .476.
The Pirates are 15-6 (.714) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Pirates are just 12-17 (.414) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Phillies are 11-9 (.550) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Phillies were 52-37 (.584) after a win in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Phillies were 36-15 (.706) when they scored in the first inning in 2023 — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .612.
The Phillies are 7-71 (.090) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .234 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .500 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of .287 (328 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .376 against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .421 against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Phillies hitters slugged .438 in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Phillies won 60% of their home games in the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Phillies hitters are slugging just .328 on the road this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .382.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers are throwing just 3.59 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Pirates pitchers have walked 35 of 532 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Pirates pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Phillies pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .125 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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