- The Phillies are -190 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Pirates / Phillies TV Channel: NSP+ | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+155) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-190) on Sunday, April 14, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Pirates are 10-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 6-8 ATS.
Pirates vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 1-1, 5.30 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 0-2, 1.90 ERA
Pirates vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -125 | O 8.5 +100 | +155 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -120 | -190 |
Pirates vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 57.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Mitch Keller has hit the Strikeouts Over in 19 of his last 30 games (+6.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Joey Bart has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+5.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 19 of his last 32 games (+4.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Earned Runs Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+4.60 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ranger Suarez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+9.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- Aaron Nola has hit the Earned Runs Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Aaron Nola has hit the Strikeouts Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+5.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- Ranger Suarez has hit the Earned Runs Over in 8 of his last 12 games at home (+4.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- Johan Rojas has hit the Total Bases Under in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+3.55 Units / 66% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+8.78 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 10-4 against the Run Line (+6.95 Units / 36.68% ROI).
- 10-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.45 Units / 41.61% ROI
- 8-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.3 Units / 8.39% ROI
- 6-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.8 Units / -18.3% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 6-8 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -12.06% ROI).
- 7-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -13% ROI
- 5-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.15 Units / -32.8% ROI
- 9-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.55 Units / 23.51% ROI
Phillies vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Phillies vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Phillies vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Phillies vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -160 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has walked 5 of 27 batters (18%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 38% (20/53) against Mitch Keller this season — 2nd highest among in NL; League Avg: 24% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .294 (20-for-68) against Mitch Keller this season — tied for 9th highest among in NL; League Avg: .242 — 19th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has walked 5 of 27 batters (18%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest among in NL; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (632/1,473) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler located 43% of his pitches inside (910/2,131) in non-two strike counts in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 97th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (483/1,115) when behind in the count since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler’s K:BB ratio is 10.0 (20/2) this season — 3rd best among in NL; League Avg: 2.9 — 95th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Pirates are 15-6 (.714) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Pirates were 34-8 (.810) when they had 10 or more hits in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Pirates are just 124-18 (.873) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Pirates are 40-8 (.833) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Phillies were 52-37 (.584) after a win in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Phillies are 59-41 (.590) after a home win since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Phillies are 20-21 (.488) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Phillies are 80-46 (.635) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .568.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 1,021 strikeouts in 4,038 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates hitters had an OPS of just .701 (1,929 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
The Pirates are batting just .234 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Pirates hitters slugged just .511 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .773 (3,857 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Phillies hitters struck out 471 times in 1,869 PA’s (25%) against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies hitters have 17 extra-base hits out of 70 total hits (just 24%) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .360 (239 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers are throwing just 3.59 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,224 of 13,074 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 54% of their games in the 2023 season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .091 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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