- The Reds are -165 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Reds Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Pirates / Reds TV Channel: ATV
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+140) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-165) on Friday, April 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Pirates are 5-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 7-6 ATS.
Pirates vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 0-1, 8.11 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Brady Singer 2-0, 2.25 ERA
Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -150 | O 8.5 -120 | +140 |
| Reds | -1.5 +125 | U 8.5 +100 | -165 |
Pirates vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Friday‘s MLB game with 58.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+16.00 Units / 320% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+9.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Joey Bart has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+8.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.20 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+17.70 Units / 87% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+17.20 Units / 80% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+17.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.35 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.85 Units / 41% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 81 away games (+10.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 81 away games (+5.55 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 80 away games (+2.20 Units / 2% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 95 of their last 163 games (+17.90 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 163 games (+8.15 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 92 of their last 163 games (+7.95 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 78 games at home (+3.45 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.70 Units / 41% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 5-8 against the Run Line (-3.45 Units / -20.85% ROI).
- 5-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.65 Units / -24.66% ROI
- 7-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.2 Units / 1.37% ROI
- 6-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.55 Units / -11.11% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 7-6 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -8.25% ROI).
- 5-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -21.25% ROI
- 6-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.6 Units / -11.23% ROI
- 7-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.45 Units / 3.14% ROI
Reds vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Reds vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Reds vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Reds vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brady Singer (CIN) | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +120 |
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter located 44% of his pitches inside (572/1,296) in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (58/377) against Bailey Falter with runners in scoring position since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .225 (97-for-432) against Bailey Falter with two-strikes since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: .169 — second Percentile.
Bailey Falter has an average spin rate of 1938.6 RPM on curveballs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: 2535.3 — third Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brady Singer had an ERA of 7.49 (51.2 IP) against division opponents in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 4.27 — first Percentile.
Brady Singer threw his slider 58% of the time (470/813) with two-strikes in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Brady Singer threw his slider 58% of the time (470/813) with two-strikes in the 2024 season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Brady Singer has thrown his slider 58% of the time (470/813) with two-strikes since last season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates are just 7-49 (.125) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates were just 7-37 (.159) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 14-27 (.341) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 61-64 (.488) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Pirates (24th best runs scored) today.
The Reds were just 6-61 (.090) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .509 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .273 against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .376.
The Pirates are hitless in 20 AB’s in lefty-lefty matchups this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Pirates hitters slugged just .383 against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .046 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .144.
Reds hitters are slugging just .144 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .250 (60 PA’s) at home this month (2 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Reds are batting just .112 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .149.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Pirates pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Pirates pitchers have not walked any of the 60 batters that they have faced when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers had 266 three-pitch strikeouts in the 2024 season — 3rd most in MLB.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 55% of their games since the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 29 of 455 batters (6%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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