- The Reds are -190 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Reds Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Pirates / Reds TV Channel: FDOH | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+154) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-190) on Sunday, April 13, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Pirates are 5-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 9-6 ATS.
Pirates vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Carmen Mlodzinski 1-1, 5.20 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Hunter Greene 1-1, 1.29 ERA
Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -135 | O 7.5 -105 | +154 |
| Reds | -1.5 +110 | U 7.5 -115 | -190 |
Pirates vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 62.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+14.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.15 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.95 Units / 52% ROI)
- Joey Bart has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+8.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+6.25 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+17.30 Units / 50% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+16.95 Units / 67% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+16.50 Units / 62% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.35 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.20 Units / 31% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 81 away games (+9.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 81 away games (+8.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 80 away games (+1.65 Units / 2% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 95 of their last 164 games (+16.85 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 86 of their last 164 games (+10.15 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 93 of their last 164 games (+9.85 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.15 Units / 81% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.10 Units / 67% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 5-10 against the Run Line (-6.85 Units / -34.34% ROI).
- 5-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.65 Units / -33.63% ROI
- 7-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.9 Units / -5.34% ROI
- 7-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.55 Units / -3.41% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 9-6 against the Run Line (+1.15 Units / 4.96% ROI).
- 7-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.9 Units / -5.45% ROI
- 6-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.7 Units / -16.41% ROI
- 8-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.45 Units / 8.76% ROI
Reds vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Endy Rodriguez (PIT) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Reds vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Reds vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Gavin Lux (CIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Noelvi Marte (CIN) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -295 |
Reds vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Greene (CIN) | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 -105 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carmen Mlodzinski has a strikeout rate of just 23% (15 SO in 65 PAs) on low non-fastballs since last season — 5th lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 39% — fifth Percentile.
Carmen Mlodzinski allowed a slugging percentage of just .071 (2 Total Bases / 28 ABs) on fastballs away in the 2024 season — 3rd best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .295 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .098 (4-for-41) against Carmen Mlodzinski’s elevated fastball since last season — 7th best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .200 — 92nd Percentile.
Carmen Mlodzinski has a strike rate of just 60% (331/550) against right-handed batters since last season — tied for 2nd lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .042 (1-for-24) against Hunter Greene’s non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .209 — 98th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of 52% (11/21) against Hunter Greene when he’s behind in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has allowed an OPS of just .382 (75 PA’s) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .667 — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 22% (5/23) against Hunter Greene this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 7-49 (.125) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates were just 7-37 (.159) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds are just 6-16 (.273) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 6-67 (.082) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Reds are just 9-18 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .498.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .100 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.
Pirates hitters have 230 strikeouts in 671 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Pirates are hitless in 23 AB’s in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
Pirates hitters have 39 strikeouts in 130 PA’s (30%) against LHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .062 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .146.
The Reds are batting just .113 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Reds hitters are slugging just .147 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
Reds hitters are slugging just .093 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Pirates pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 3 of 93 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 4.80 (60.0 IP) at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.50.
Pirates pitchers have 287 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — 3rd most in MLB.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% against Reds pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
More MLB Reading:
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