Pirates vs Tigers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Mar 9

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Detroit Tigers' Parker Meadows reacts after hitting a double against the Oakland Athletics during the third inning of a baseball game Sunday, Sept. 24, 2023, in Oakland, Calif.
(AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 09, 2024, 10:59 AM

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+140) visit Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium to take on the Detroit Tigers (-165) on Saturday, March 9, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Lakeland, FL.

This season, the Pirates are 5-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 5-5 ATS.

Pirates vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Moneyline
Pirates+140
Tigers -165

Pirates vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Saturday‘s matchup with 56.8% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Canaan Smith-Njigba has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Jason Delay has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 away games (+3.30 Units / 165% ROI)
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.25 Units / 112% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+1.40 Units / 35% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Andy Ibanez has hit the RBIs Over in his last 3 games (+5.90 Units / 197% ROI)
  • Ryan Kreidler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.10 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Andre Lipcius has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.25 Units / 105% ROI)
  • Andre Lipcius has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Carson Kelly has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 76 of their last 151 games (+15.90 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 29 games (+11.80 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+10.89 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 75 games (+8.60 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.39 Units / 74% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this Spring Training, the Pirates are 6-6 against the Run Line (-1.14 Units / -7.08% ROI).

  • 5-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.17 Units / -15.9% ROI
  • 7-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.8 Units / 21.26% ROI
  • 4-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.6 Units / -27.17% ROI

Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this Spring Training, the Tigers are 5-5 against the Run Line (-0.09 Units / -0.78% ROI).

  • 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -6.48% ROI
  • 3-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.82 Units / -33.9% ROI
  • 6-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.77 Units / 25.65% ROI

Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 58% (130/224) against Luis Ortiz on pitches in the strike zone in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.

Luis Ortiz had a strike rate of just 61% (238/391) when he’s behind in the count in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 69% — second Percentile.

Luis Ortiz threw fastballs down 49% of the time (388/787) in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 98th Percentile.

Luis Ortiz had a strikeout rate of just 7% (6/80) when going through the lineup the third time in a game in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 20% — 0 Percentile.

Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Matt Manning allowed a BABIP of .216 in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .295 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents had a line drive rate of just 15% (21/140) versus Matt Manning on non-fastballs in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents had a chase percentage of just 22% (114/514) against Matt Manning in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 29% — first Percentile.

Opponents had a miss rate of just 19% (104/553) against Matt Manning in the 2023 season — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers

The Pirates are just 56-80 (.412) after a win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.

The Pirates were 34-7 (.829) when they had 10 or more hits in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .728.

The Pirates are just 111-56 (.665) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Pirates are just 33-43 (.434) after a home win since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.

Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Tigers were 31-9 (.775) when they scored in the first inning in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .611.

The Tigers are just 20-126 (.137) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.

The Tigers are just 19-85 (.183) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.

The Tigers are just 8-14 (.364) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Pirates hitters slugged just .511 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.

The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 42% since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Pirates hitters slugged just .383 against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.

The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 40% on the road since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

The Tigers batted just .241 on fastballs in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.

Tigers hitters had an OBP of just .300 (741 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .330.

The Tigers batted just .211 on pitches 95 mph or greater in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

Tigers hitters slugged just .171 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.

The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 454.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 466.0

Pirates pitchers had allowed a run 36% of the time after scoring a run on offense in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 53% of their games on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.

Tigers pitchers had an ERA of 2.93 (464.0 IP) against division opponents in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.32.

The Tigers won just 23% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Tigers pitchers have allowed the 29th hardest ball in play hit (119.5 MPH) in the 2023 season (; League Avg: 117.2).

The Tigers have won just 26% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Tigers vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Dillon Dingler (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
  • Riley Greene (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
  • Austin Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Personal, Out
  • Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
  • Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Groin, Out
  • Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
  • Freddy Pacheco (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
  • Kerry Carpenter (Detroit Tigers): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
  • Mason Englert (Detroit Tigers): Hip, Out
  • Garrett Hill (Detroit Tigers): Lat, Out
  • Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh Pirates): Achilles, Out
  • Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
  • Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
  • JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.