Rangers vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 4

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(AP Photo/Colin E. Braley)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 04, 2024, 11:01 AM
  • The Rangers are -115 favorites vs the Royals
  • Rangers vs Royals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
  • Rangers / Royals TV Channel: BSKC | BSSW

The Texas Rangers (-115) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-105) on Saturday, May 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.

This season, the Rangers are 17-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 22-11 ATS.

Rangers vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Rangers starting pitcher: Dane Dunning 3-2, 4.18 ERA
  • Royals starting pitcher: Michael Wacha 1-3, 4.28 ERA

Rangers vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Rangers-1.5 +145O 8.5 -105-115
Royals +1.5 -175U 8.5 -115-105

Rangers vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 52.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rangers Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Josh H. Smith has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 26 games (+15.25 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Corey Seager has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.60 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Evan Carter has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+12.60 Units / 140% ROI)
  • Corey Seager has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+11.65 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Adolis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 26 games (+9.90 Units / 38% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+14.95 Units / 93% ROI)
  • MJ Melendez has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+14.00 Units / 73% ROI)
  • MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.80 Units / 69% ROI)
  • MJ Melendez has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.30 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Maikel Garcia has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 33 games (+11.90 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 83 of their last 149 games (+19.35 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 80 of their last 149 games (+17.83 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 39 games (+14.10 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games (+13.05 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 85 of their last 149 games (+12.38 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+14.97 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+14.10 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+13.10 Units / 77% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+11.08 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)

Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Rangers are 15-18 against the Run Line (-5.9 Units / -13.39% ROI).

  • 17-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -5.58% ROI
  • 12-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.9 Units / -24.62% ROI
  • 19-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.7 Units / 15.64% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Royals are 22-11 against the Run Line (+8.24 Units / 17.31% ROI).

  • 20-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.25 Units / 24.7% ROI
  • 10-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.95 Units / -33.9% ROI
  • 20-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +9 Units / 25.53% ROI

Royals vs Rangers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Salvador Perez (KC) 0.5 +475 0.5 -700
Corey Seager (TEX) 0.5 +475 0.5 -650
MJ Melendez (KC) 0.5 +550 0.5 -800
Marcus Semien (TEX) 0.5 +575 0.5 -900
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) 0.5 +600 0.5 -900

Royals vs Rangers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adolis Garcia (TEX) 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Nate Lowe (TEX) 0.5 -210 0.5 +160
Wyatt Langford (TEX) 0.5 -210 0.5 +160
Leody Taveras (TEX) 0.5 -185 0.5 +140
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) 0.5 -175 0.5 +135

Royals vs Rangers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adolis Garcia (TEX) 0.5 +115 0.5 -150
Salvador Perez (KC) 0.5 +120 0.5 -160
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) 0.5 +140 0.5 -185
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Corey Seager (TEX) 0.5 +160 0.5 -210

Royals vs Rangers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under

Dane Dunning has a first-pitch strike rate of just 50% (68/135) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a miss rate of 40% (44/109) against Dane Dunning this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 33% (79/238) against Dane Dunning this season — 2nd best among among AL Starters; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.

Dane Dunning has a first-pitch strike rate of just 50% (68/135) this season — lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.

Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 27% (13/48) against Michael Wacha this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .348 (16-for-46) against Michael Wacha when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — fifth Percentile.

Michael Wacha has a strikeout rate of just 15% (8 SO in 54 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.

Michael Wacha has a strikeout rate of just 15% (8 SO in 54 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 26% — sixth Percentile.

Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Rangers are 36-20 (.643) after a home win since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .526.

The Rangers are just 2-154 (.013) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.

The Rangers are just 6-141 (.041) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.

The Rangers are just 1-73 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers

The Royals are just 18-14 (.562) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .789.

The Royals are just 13-87 (.130) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.

The Royals are just 19-45 (.297) after a road win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .491.

The Royals are just 3-11 (.214) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Rangers hitters have an OPS of .827 (3,799 PA’s) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .739.

Rangers hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Rangers hitters are slugging .447 against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.

13% of Rangers’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,737/13,565 PA’s) since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.

Royals hitters have an OBP of just .280 (3,515 PA’s) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.

The Royals have won just 51% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.

The Royals won just 46% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.

Royals hitters have an OBP of just .223 (283 PA’s) when leading off an inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .306.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Rangers pitchers this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Rangers pitchers have walked 18 of 291 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Rangers won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Rangers pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .244 (291 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .306.

The Royals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Royals pitchers this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

The Royals won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.

Royals vs. Rangers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Day-To-Day
  • Michael Massey (Kansas City Royals): Back, 10-Day IL
  • Jake Brentz (Kansas City Royals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
  • Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
  • Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Max Scherzer (Texas Rangers): Back, 15-Day IL
  • Jacob deGrom (Texas Rangers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Brett Martin (Texas Rangers): Shoulder, Out
  • Tyler Mahle (Texas Rangers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Jonathan Hernandez (Texas Rangers): Lat, 15-Day IL
  • Carson Coleman (Texas Rangers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Nathaniel Lowe (Texas Rangers): Oblique, 10-Day IL

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.