- The Rays are -150 favorites vs the Marlins
- Rays vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Rays / Marlins TV Channel: FDFL | FSUN
The Tampa Bay Rays (-150) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+125) on Saturday, May 17, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Rays are 20-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 22-21 ATS.
Rays vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen 1-4, 3.35 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara 2-5, 8.11 ERA
Rays vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +115 | O 8 -105 | -150 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -140 | U 8 -115 | +125 |
Rays vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 57.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Danny Jansen has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- Drew Rasmussen has hit the Earned Runs Over in his last 4 games (+4.60 Units / 91% ROI)
- Danny Jansen has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+4.60 Units / 77% ROI)
- Drew Rasmussen has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Danny Jansen has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+3.70 Units / 93% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.90 Units / 82% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Over in his last 6 games (+6.65 Units / 85% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Strikeouts Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 58% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.50 Units / 58% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Hits Allowed Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
Marlins Best Bets Today:
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 19-25 against the Run Line (-8.05 Units / -14.64% ROI).
- 20-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.17 Units / -11.29% ROI
- 18-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.4 Units / -17.23% ROI
- 24-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.55 Units / 9.46% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 22-21 against the Run Line (-0.05 Units / -0.1% ROI).
- 17-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.5 Units / -5.52% ROI
- 27-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.05 Units / 18.95% ROI
- 16-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.6 Units / -29.03% ROI
Marlins vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Marlins vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Chandler Simpson (TB) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Marlins vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Chandler Simpson (TB) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen (TB) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -140 |
| Sandy Alcantara (MIA) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Rasmussen has thrown inside pitches 56% of the time (85/151) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Rasmussen has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (282/625) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Rasmussen has thrown inside pitches 55% of the time (197/356) vs left-handed batters this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Rasmussen has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (193/415) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara has walked 19% of left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: 9% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .371 (62-for-167) against Sandy Alcantara with runners in scoring position since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 0 Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed an OBP of .421 (195 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: .321 — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a chase rate of 39% (236/599) against Sandy Alcantara in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Rays are 15-147 (.092) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Rays are 3-20 (.130) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .045.
The Rays are 4-21 (.160) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Rays are 58-9 (.866) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .808.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins were just 20-41 (.328) after a win in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have an OPS of just .576 (495 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .686.
Rays hitters are slugging just .293 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .375.
The Rays are batting just .199 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Rays hitters had a groundball batting average of .311 with runners on base in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .353 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Rays pitchers have struck out in the zone 65% of the time over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Batters facing the Rays pitchers have struck out in the zone 63% of the time this month (14 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. this month (14 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Rays pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 41 double plays in 293 opportunities (14%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers walked 445 of 6,022 batters (7%) in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.25 (964.1 IP) at home since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.95.
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 6.30 (168.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
More MLB Reading:
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