- The Rays are -150 favorites vs the Marlins
- Rays vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Rays / Marlins TV Channel: FDFL | FSUN | WBFS
The Tampa Bay Rays (-150) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+125) on Sunday, May 18, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami, FL, FL.
This season, the Rays are 21-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 22-22 ATS.
Rays vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Shane Baz 3-2, 5.03 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill 2-4, 7.01 ERA
Rays vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +105 | O 8.5 +100 | -150 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -125 | U 8.5 -120 | +125 |
Rays vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 57.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- Shane Baz has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.50 Units / 55% ROI)
- Chandler Simpson has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.60 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jose Caballero has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 73% ROI)
- Jose Caballero has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 72% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Liam Hicks has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+26.00 Units / 260% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+9.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- Connor Norby has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- Connor Norby has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.65 Units / 47% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 29 games (+9.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 away games (+9.60 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+8.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+6.10 Units / 51% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+8.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+7.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 25 games (+3.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.75 Units / 23% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 20-25 against the Run Line (-6.9 Units / -12.32% ROI).
- 21-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.17 Units / -9.21% ROI
- 18-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.5 Units / -19.06% ROI
- 25-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.55 Units / 11.28% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 22-22 against the Run Line (-1.4 Units / -2.61% ROI).
- 17-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.5 Units / -7.57% ROI
- 27-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.95 Units / 16.27% ROI
- 17-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.6 Units / -26.28% ROI
Marlins vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Mervis (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Marlins vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +170 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Marlins vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Quantrill (MIA) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +100 |
| Shane Baz (TB) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -105 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Baz allowed a BABIP of .167 vs left-handed batters in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .287 — 99th Percentile.
Shane Baz has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (105/229) with two-strikes this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (63/337) against Shane Baz since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Shane Baz has a strike rate of 71% (163/229) in two strike counts this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 96th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .417 (30-for-72) against Cal Quantrill this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 0 Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has allowed a slugging percentage of .694 (50 Total Bases / 72 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: .390 — 0 Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has allowed a slugging percentage of .632 (151 Total Bases / 239 ABs) on fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: .427 — 0 Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 30% (191 SO in 633 PAs) with two-strikes since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Rays are 15-147 (.092) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Rays are 3-20 (.130) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .044.
The Rays were 16-64 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Rays are 69-7 (.908) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .860.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Marlins are just 10-3 (.769) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins were just 20-41 (.328) after a win in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays scored first in 71% of their games against division opponents in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters are slugging just .294 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .376.
The Rays are batting just .203 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Rays hitters struck out 343 times in 1,369 PA’s (25%) against LHP in the 2024 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Marlins were just 4-17 (.190) against the run line (-61.9% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .644 (2,427 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Rays pitchers have struck out in the zone 66% of the time over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Batters facing the Rays pitchers have struck out in the zone 63% of the time this month (15 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. this month (15 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Rays pitchers in 2023 — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 6.30 (168.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.30.
The Marlins have allowed 6.30 runs per game (126/20) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.46.
More MLB Reading:
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