- The Padres are -150 favorites vs the Rays
- Rays vs Padres Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Rays / Padres TV Channel: FSUN | PDTV | MLBN
The Tampa Bay Rays (+120) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-145) on Friday, April 25, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA, CA.
This season, the Rays are 11-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 15-10 ATS.
Rays vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Shane Baz 2-0, 3.23 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 3-0, 2.54 ERA
Rays vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -190 | O 7 -110 | +120 |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | U 7 -110 | -145 |
Rays vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB game with 57.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Junior Caminero has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+14.15 Units / 45% ROI)
- Junior Caminero has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Shane Baz has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.30 Units / 72% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+8.10 Units / 81% ROI)
- Kameron Misner has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.65 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Iglesias has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+14.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Iglesias has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+13.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+10.00 Units / 125% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 20 games (+9.05 Units / 45% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+4.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.55 Units / 29% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in their last 11 games at home (+13.30 Units / 106% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 13 games at home (+11.30 Units / 59% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+9.10 Units / 70% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+7.45 Units / 51% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 10-15 against the Run Line (-6.1 Units / -20.07% ROI).
- 11-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -5 Units / -15.27% ROI
- 11-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.15 Units / -7.78% ROI
- 12-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.1 Units / 0.37% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 15-10 against the Run Line (+3.85 Units / 11.58% ROI).
- 17-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.3 Units / 28.75% ROI
- 10-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.05 Units / -18.67% ROI
- 14-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.7 Units / 9.61% ROI
Padres vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -325 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Padres vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jose Iglesias (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Oscar Gonzalez (SD) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Padres vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -325 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -325 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -325 |
Padres vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael King (SD) | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -115 |
| Shane Baz (TB) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Baz allowed a BABIP of .167 vs left-handed batters in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .287 — 99th Percentile.
Shane Baz has allowed an OBP of just .148 (54 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — 2nd best among among AL Starters; League Avg: .246 — 98th Percentile.
Shane Baz has struck out 44% (18/41) of left-handed batters he faced this month (4 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Baz has allowed an OPS of just .246 (54 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .506 — 97th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .150 (6-for-40) against Michael King when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 94th Percentile.
Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.6 MPH in the 2024 season (439 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 88.9
Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.4 MPH since the 2023 season (774 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 89.1
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of 30% (193/641) against Michael King in the 2024 season — tied for 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 83rd Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Rays are 2-11 (.154) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .038.
The Rays are 14-138 (.092) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Rays are just 9-14 (.391) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays were 16-64 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Padres are 12-1 (.923) at home this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .613.
The Padres are 11-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .878.
The Padres were 48-33 (.593) on the road in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
The Padres were 93-69 (.574) in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays have not won a game in which they have scored first on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
The Rays have scored first in just 17% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Rays have not won a game in which they have scored first on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
The Rays have scored first in just 17% of their road games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 17% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters struck out just 799 times in 4,486 PA’s (18%) against RHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Rays pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 22 double plays in 160 opportunities (14%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have walked 7% of batters since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 1.30 (118.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.51.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 28% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 28% of their games this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
More MLB Reading:
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