- The Padres are -145 favorites vs the Rays
- Rays vs Padres Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Rays / Padres TV Channel: FSUN | PDTV | KFMB
The Tampa Bay Rays (+110) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-135) on Saturday, April 26, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA, CA.
This season, the Rays are 12-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 15-11 ATS.
Rays vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Pepiot 1-3, 4.88 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 1-1, 6.05 ERA
Rays vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -220 | O 7 -120 | +110 |
| Padres | -1.5 +180 | U 7 +100 | -135 |
Rays vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 57.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Junior Caminero has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+14.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- Junior Caminero has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+7.90 Units / 198% ROI)
- Kameron Misner has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+14.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+12.65 Units / 47% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Dylan Cease has hit the Earned Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.30 Units / 50% ROI)
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 100% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+7.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 16 games (+3.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.80 Units / 44% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 12 games at home (+12.30 Units / 90% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games at home (+9.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+8.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+6.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.20 Units / 34% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 11-15 against the Run Line (-5.1 Units / -15.84% ROI).
- 12-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.75 Units / -11.11% ROI
- 11-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.15 Units / -10.99% ROI
- 13-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.1 Units / 3.85% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 15-11 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 8.32% ROI).
- 17-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.8 Units / 23.04% ROI
- 10-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.05 Units / -21.57% ROI
- 15-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.7 Units / 12.61% ROI
Padres vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Padres vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Chandler Simpson (TB) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jose Iglesias (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Padres vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -285 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Padres vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
| Ryan Pepiot (TB) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Pepiot allowed an OBP of just .147 (75 PA’s) vs left-handed batters in 2023 — best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .316 — 100th Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot allowed a batting average of .417 vs right-handed batters (third worst)– third Percentile and just .185 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (10th best among qualified SPs)– 84th Percentile.
Left-handed batters hit just .111 (8-for-72) against Ryan Pepiot in 2023 — 2nd best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .229 — 98th Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot allowed an OPS of just .383 (75 PA’s) vs left-handed batters in 2023 — 2nd best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .689 — 98th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .365 against Dylan Cease vs right-handed batters this season — third worst among qualified SPs– third Percentile. Right handed batters hit just .189 (66-for-349) against him last season — third best among qualified SPs– 96th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 58% of the time (66/113) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .163 (41-for-252) against Dylan Cease when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 98th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown his slider 51% of the time (1,761/3,489) against right-handed batters since the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Rays are 2-11 (.154) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .043.
The Rays are 22-131 (.144) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .099.
The Rays are 14-138 (.092) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Rays are 142-8 (.940) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .901.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Padres were 48-33 (.593) on the road in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
The Padres are 78-6 (.929) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .860.
The Padres are 88-5 (.946) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .902.
The Padres are 9-2 (.818) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Rays (29th best runs scored) today.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays have not won a game in which they have scored first on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Rays hitters put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays hitters struck out 343 times in 1,369 PA’s (25%) against LHP in the 2024 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Rays have scored first in just 17% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 17% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres are batting .203 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Padres are batting .272 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 7% of batters since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 22 double plays in 160 opportunities (14%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers walked 439 of 5,994 batters (7%) in 2023 — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.2 MPH since the 2023 season (8,472 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 28% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 1.30 (118.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.51.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
More MLB Reading:
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