The Tampa Bay Rays (+100) visit BayCare Ballpark to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-120) on Thursday, March 21, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Clearwater, FL.
This season, the Rays are 6-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 0-1 ATS.
Rays vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Rays | +100 |
| Phillies | -120 |
Rays vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s matchup with 56.7% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Raimel Tapia has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 games (+3.95 Units / 198% ROI)
- Curtis Mead has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Siri has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.55 Units / 85% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+2.10 Units / 210% ROI)
- Jose Siri has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Johan Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games at home (+3.05 Units / 79% ROI)
- Garrett Stubbs has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 94 of their last 164 games (+14.09 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 30 away games (+13.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 88 of their last 160 games (+13.55 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 30 away games (+9.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 away games (+8.30 Units / 23% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+8.78 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Rays are 9-11 against the Run Line (-3.47 Units / -13.89% ROI).
- 6-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.89 Units / -28.47% ROI
- 11-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.87 Units / 3.9% ROI
- 9-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.13 Units / -14.39% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Phillies are 0-1 against the Run Line (-1.35 Units / -100% ROI).
- 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Pepiot allowed an OBP of just .147 (75 PA’s) vs left-handed batters in the 2023 season — best among in NL; League Avg: .316 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters hit just .111 (8-for-72) against Ryan Pepiot in the 2023 season — 2nd best among in NL; League Avg: .229 — 98th Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot allowed an OPS of just .383 (75 PA’s) vs left-handed batters in the 2023 season — 2nd best among in NL; League Avg: .689 — 98th Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot allowed an OBP of just .220 (159 PA’s) in the 2023 season — best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .312 — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 58% (162/281) against Cristopher Sanchez in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 70% (55/78) against Cristopher Sanchez’s changeup in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 97th Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez threw his changeup 38% of the time (444/1,169) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CH; League Avg: 13% — 99th Percentile.
Hitters chased 219 of Cristopher Sanchez’s 506 off-speed pitches out of the zone (chase rate of 43%) in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Rays were 16-6 (.727) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays were 17-6 (.739) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays were just 4-12 (.250) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Rays are just 11-26 (.297) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Phillies are 27-115 (.190) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies were 7-64 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Phillies are 47-33 (.588) after a road win since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Phillies were 19-11 (.633) after a home loss in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .508.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters had a groundball batting average of .284 in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Rays scored first in 71% of their games against division opponents in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays batted .270 against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Rays hitters had an OBP of .331 (6,164 PA’s) in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters slugged .454 against LHP in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Phillies batted .252 with two outs in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Phillies hitters struck out 471 times in 1,869 PA’s (25%) against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies hitters slugged .488 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Rays pitchers in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.4 MPH (4,019 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Phillies won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Phillies pitchers induced opposing hitters to ground into just 95 double plays in 1,088 opportunities (9%) in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brandon Marsh (Philadelphia Phillies): Knee, Out
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Alec Bohm (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, Day-To-Day
- Taylor Walls (Tampa Bay Rays): Hip, Out
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Shane Baz (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Out
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