- Rays / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN
The Tampa Bay Rays (+165) visit JetBlue Park at Fenway South to take on the Boston Red Sox (-200) on Tuesday, March 5, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Fort Myers, FL.
This season, the Rays are 1-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 6-2 ATS.
Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Rays | +165 |
| Red Sox | -200 |
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 55.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Raimel Tapia has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 games (+3.95 Units / 198% ROI)
- Junior Caminero has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+3.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- Curtis Mead has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Siri has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.55 Units / 85% ROI)
- Harold Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games at home (+4.90 Units / 102% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+3.80 Units / 190% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.95 Units / 98% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+0.90 Units / 45% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 games at home (+0.85 Units / 43% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 94 of their last 164 games (+14.09 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 30 away games (+13.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 88 of their last 160 games (+13.55 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 30 away games (+9.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 away games (+8.30 Units / 23% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.49 Units / 34% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Rays are 3-4 against the Run Line (-1.38 Units / -16.33% ROI).
- 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.82 Units / -41.43% ROI
- 4-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.67 Units / 8.72% ROI
- 3-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.55 Units / -19.95% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Red Sox are 6-2 against the Run Line (+4 Units / 42.24% ROI).
- 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -9.4% ROI
- 1-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.63 Units / -75.95% ROI
- 7-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.9 Units / 66.52% ROI
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Garrett Whitlock walked 13 of 304 batters (4%) in the 2023 season — 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 95th Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock allowed a BABIP of .342 in the 2023 season — tied for 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .295 — fifth Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock’s lowest spin rate on changeups since last season is 1732.0 RPM — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 1200.5
Garrett Whitlock had a strike rate of 68% (815/1,195) in the 2023 season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 95th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are just 11-26 (.297) after a win as underdogs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Rays were 17-6 (.739) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays were 7-54 (.115) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Rays were 71-13 (.845) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .780.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox were just 17-25 (.405) after a home loss in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Red Sox were 63-3 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Red Sox were just 1-72 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are just 3-138 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays scored first in 64% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters had a groundball batting average of .312 with runners on base in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Rays hitters had a groundball batting average of .284 in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Rays hitters slugged .445 in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox hitters slugged .266 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Red Sox hitters slugged .505 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers walked 439 of 5,994 batters (7%) in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .265 against Red Sox pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Red Sox have won 43% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents had a swing rate of 49% against the Red Sox pitchers in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 208 times since the 2021 season — tied for 4th most in MLB.
Red Sox vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- David Hamilton (Boston Red Sox): Thumb, Out
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, Out
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Dinelson Lamet (Boston Red Sox): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Connor Wong (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Jarren Duran (Boston Red Sox): Toe, Out
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Lat, Out
- Taylor Walls (Tampa Bay Rays): Hip, Out
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Shane Baz (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Out
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