- The Astros are -150 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Astros Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Astros TV Channel: NESN | SCHN | MLBN
The Boston Red Sox (+125) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-150) on Wednesday, August 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Red Sox are 66-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 63-62 ATS.
Red Sox vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Cooper Criswell 5-4, 4.60 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander 3-2, 3.97 ERA
Red Sox vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 +100 | +125 |
| Astros | -1.5 +140 | U 8.5 -120 | -150 |
Red Sox vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 54.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 12 of his last 49 games (+32.40 Units / 66% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 18 away games (+16.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+14.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 49 games (+12.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 24 games (+12.40 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 33 games (+33.20 Units / 101% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 49 games (+19.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+14.55 Units / 59% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+11.55 Units / 17% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 52 of their last 82 games (+23.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 61 away games (+16.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 61 away games (+11.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games (+9.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 70 of their last 125 games (+7.75 Units / 5% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 108 games (+17.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 67 games (+14.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 52 games (+13.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 31 games (+9.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 41 games at home (+5.45 Units / 11% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 58-67 against the Run Line (-18.1 Units / -10.83% ROI).
- 66-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 0.49% ROI
- 66-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.05 Units / 5.84% ROI
- 53-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -19 Units / -13.84% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 63-62 against the Run Line (+2.1 Units / 1.36% ROI).
- 68-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.35 Units / -3.52% ROI
- 50-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -28.45 Units / -20.83% ROI
- 72-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.75 Units / 12.08% ROI
Astros vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
Astros vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mauricio Dubon (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jake Meyers (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Trey Cabbage (HOU) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Astros vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Astros vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander (HOU) | 4.5 -175 | 4.5 +135 |
| Cooper Criswell (BOS) | 3.5 +135 | 3.5 -175 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 5% (2/38) against Cooper Criswell over the last 14 days — lowest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Cooper Criswell has located his fastballs down 57% of the time (212/370) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 98th Percentile.
Cooper Criswell has allowed an OBP of .600 (15 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: .238 — first Percentile.
Cooper Criswell allowed an OBP of .591 (22 PA’s) in his last appearance — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .305 — 0 Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (43/167) against Justin Verlander this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .539 (755 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 179 total IP; League Avg: .715 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 94.6 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since last season (92 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 90.2
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .566 (576 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 179 total IP; League Avg: .712 — 99th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Red Sox are just 5-188 (.026) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are 43-35 (.551) after a road win since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
The Red Sox are 37-27 (.578) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .475.
The Red Sox are just 3-122 (.024) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Astros are 78-53 (.595) after a road win since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Astros are just 0-43 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Astros are 120-34 (.779) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
The Astros are 44-32 (.579) after a road win since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 409 strikeouts in 1,475 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .291 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .783 (3,387 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
The Red Sox are batting .260 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 890 strikeouts in 4,963 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,555/10,981 PA’s) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Astros hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
15% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (735/4,728 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 12%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 343 of 4,771 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 177 of 2,561 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers this season is 388.1 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 397.9
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Tucker (Houston Astros): Lower Leg, 10-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Cristian Javier (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Isaiah Campbell (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Story (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Chest, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Chris Martin (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Justin Slaten (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Triston Casas (Boston Red Sox): Ribs, 60-Day IL
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