- The Braves are -180 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Braves Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Braves TV Channel: FDSO | FDSE | NESN
The Boston Red Sox (+155) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-185) on Saturday, May 31, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Red Sox are 28-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 24-31 ATS.
Red Sox vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Walker Buehler 4-2, 3.95 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach 3-4, 3.43 ERA
Red Sox vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -135 | O 8.5 -102 | +155 |
| Braves | -1.5 +115 | U 8.5 -118 | -185 |
Red Sox vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 60.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.85 Units / 62% ROI)
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+8.15 Units / 54% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 away games (+7.80 Units / 98% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+6.90 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 25 games (+22.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Walks Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.05 Units / 44% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+7.40 Units / 35% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 18 away games (+12.95 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 away games (+8.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 49 games (+8.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 29 away games (+6.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+6.00 Units / 10% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 29 games (+12.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+8.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.32 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+6.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.45 Units / 41% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 29-29 against the Run Line (+1.5 Units / 2.04% ROI).
- 28-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.81 Units / -14.73% ROI
- 27-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.02 Units / -10.77% ROI
- 31-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.65 Units / 2.55% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 24-31 against the Run Line (-6.22 Units / -9.58% ROI).
- 26-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.23 Units / -19.44% ROI
- 21-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.1 Units / -19.5% ROI
- 30-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +7 Units / 11.44% ROI
Braves vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
Braves vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drake Baldwin (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Braves vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Braves vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler (BOS) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
| Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 15% (6/40) against Walker Buehler’s breaking pitches this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 38% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 17% (9/54) against Walker Buehler’s non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 37% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 14% (5/36) against Walker Buehler’s low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 99th Percentile.
Walker Buehler has a in-zone of just 34% (72/210) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Schwellenbach’s K:BB ratio is 11.0 (33/3) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.2 — 98th Percentile.
Spencer Schwellenbach has allowed a SLG of just .214 vs right-handed batters (tied for ninth best)– 86th Percentile but .692 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (fourth worst among qualified SPs)– sixth Percentile.
Spencer Schwellenbach has thrown 58% of his pitches in the strike zone (260/445) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — 98th Percentile.
Spencer Schwellenbach has walked 3% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 97th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Red Sox are just 43-164 (.208) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
The Red Sox are just 15-150 (.091) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .140.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are just 27-94 (.223) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Braves are just 5-13 (.278) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Red Sox (23rd best runs allowed) today.
The Braves are 105-87 (.547) on the road since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .473.
The Braves are just 18-5 (.783) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .866.
The Braves are just 10-20 (.333) on the road this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .439.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have put just 30% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox hitters have struck out in 27% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters slugged .501 in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Braves hitters slugged .521 against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Braves hitters slugged .509 at home in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers walked 98 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 45% of the time since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 42% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
More MLB Reading:
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