- The Red Sox are +100 favorites vs the Brewers
- Red Sox vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Brewers TV Channel: NESN | FDWI
The Boston Red Sox (+100) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-120) on Tuesday, May 27, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Red Sox are 27-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 27-27 ATS.
Red Sox vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 2-1, 4.12 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Civale 0-1, 9.01 ERA
Red Sox vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +165 | O 8.5 -110 | +100 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -200 | U 8.5 -110 | -120 |
Red Sox vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+16.00 Units / 229% ROI)
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+16.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+15.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+11.20 Units / 49% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Joseph Ortiz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+10.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Joseph Ortiz has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.90 Units / 41% ROI)
- Joseph Ortiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 15 away games (+9.95 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 46 games (+9.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 47 games (+6.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 away games (+6.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.58 Units / 31% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+10.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 51 games (+10.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 51 games (+10.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+6.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 48 games (+6.52 Units / 11% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 27-28 against the Run Line (+0.5 Units / 0.72% ROI).
- 27-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.16 Units / -14.48% ROI
- 26-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.77 Units / -9.33% ROI
- 29-26 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.75 Units / 1.22% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 27-27 against the Run Line (-4.9 Units / -6.54% ROI).
- 27-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -3.19% ROI
- 21-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.4 Units / -22% ROI
- 31-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.95 Units / 13.21% ROI
Brewers vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Carlos Narvaez (BOS) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Brewers vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Kristian Campbell (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Carlos Narvaez (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Brewers vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Carlos Narvaez (BOS) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -285 |
Brewers vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Civale (MIL) | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 55% (97/175) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts in the 2024 season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 94th Percentile.
Brayan Bello had a strike rate of just 54% (266/497) on sliders in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.
Brayan Bello has a strike rate of just 56% (228/407) vs left-handed batters this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 63% — third Percentile.
Brayan Bello allowed an OBP of .352 (270 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .290 — sixth Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Aaron Civale since the 2023 season is 384.1 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 398.3
Aaron Civale struck out just 18% (63/356) of right-handed batters he faced in the 2024 season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 10th Percentile.
Aaron Civale allowed an OBP of .266 (369 PA’s) with two-strikes in the 2024 season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — ninth Percentile.
Aaron Civale had a strike rate of just 64% (860/1,347) against right-handed batters in the 2024 season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 13th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Red Sox are just 6-78 (.071) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .140.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are 21-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .957.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Brewers are just 0-21 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .131.
The Brewers are just 3-15 (.167) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .377.
The Brewers are 95-71 (.572) after a loss since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Brewers are 116-94 (.552) after a win since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .506.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have struck out in 27% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 30% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters had 129 extra-base hits out of 494 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters have 71 extra-base hits out of 250 total hits (just 28%) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 55% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 57% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Brewers have won just 9% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
The Brewers have won just 10% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
More MLB Reading:
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