- The Brewers are -160 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Red Sox / Brewers TV Channel: NESN | FDWI | MLBN
The Boston Red Sox (+120) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-145) on Wednesday, May 28, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Red Sox are 27-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 28-27 ATS.
Red Sox vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 2-1, 4.12 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 5-3, 2.57 ERA
Red Sox vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -175 | O 7.5 -105 | +120 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +145 | U 7.5 -115 | -145 |
Red Sox vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 57.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 away games (+15.00 Units / 188% ROI)
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+14.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.00 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games (+11.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Joseph Ortiz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+10.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Joseph Ortiz has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.90 Units / 42% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+9.40 Units / 188% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 16 away games (+10.95 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 47 games (+10.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 48 games (+8.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 away games (+6.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 48% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 52 games (+11.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 52 games (+10.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 52 games (+9.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+7.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.15 Units / 54% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 27-29 against the Run Line (-0.5 Units / -0.71% ROI).
- 27-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.26 Units / -15.69% ROI
- 26-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.92 Units / -10.99% ROI
- 30-26 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.75 Units / 2.8% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 28-27 against the Run Line (-3.9 Units / -5.1% ROI).
- 28-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.1 Units / -1.64% ROI
- 21-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.55 Units / -23.45% ROI
- 32-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.95 Units / 14.61% ROI
Brewers vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Marcelo Mayer (BOS) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Brewers vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Brewers vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Brewers vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta (MIL) | 6.5 -155 | 6.5 +120 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brayan Bello has allowed an OBP of .392 (51 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .311 (14-for-45) against Brayan Bello with two-strikes this month (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .164 — first Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 51% (242/474) against Brayan Bello in the 2024 season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 91st Percentile.
Brayan Bello had a strike rate of just 61% (480/788) in two strike counts in the 2024 season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — eighth Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta has a in-zone of just 39% (192/489) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — first Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a in-zone of just 41% (425/1,033) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — first Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 59% (463/790) with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a in-zone of just 34% (70/204) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — first Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Red Sox are just 15-149 (.091) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .140.
The Red Sox were just 38-43 (.469) at home in the 2024 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Red Sox are just 12-17 (.414) after a loss this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .488.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Brewers are just 3-15 (.167) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .377.
The Brewers are 29-18 (.617) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 150-28 (.843) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Brewers are just 4-147 (.026) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 30% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Red Sox hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters came to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,726 of their 6,170 plate appearances (28%) in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .319 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .377.
Brewers hitters had 129 extra-base hits out of 494 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers walked 98 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Red Sox pitchers this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 55% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 57% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
More MLB Reading:
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