- The Red Sox are -105 favorites vs the Guardians
- Red Sox vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | NESN
The Boston Red Sox (-105) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-115) on Sunday, April 27, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH, OH.
This season, the Red Sox are 15-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 14-12 ATS.
Red Sox vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 1-0, 1.80 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen 1-1, 2.08 ERA
Red Sox vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +154 | O 7.5 -102 | -105 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -190 | U 7.5 -118 | -115 |
Red Sox vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+16.50 Units / 275% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 away games (+15.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.65 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Manzardo has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+14.60 Units / 243% ROI)
- Nolan Jones has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games at home (+10.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+8.55 Units / 107% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games (+6.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 15 away games (+2.70 Units / 13% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+3.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+3.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+3.50 Units / 18% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 14-15 against the Run Line (-0.65 Units / -1.78% ROI).
- 15-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.95 Units / -11.21% ROI
- 13-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -10.24% ROI
- 15-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.8 Units / 2.5% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 14-12 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -1.59% ROI).
- 15-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.8 Units / 15.43% ROI
- 13-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.3 Units / 4.6% ROI
- 11-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.2 Units / -11.05% ROI
Guardians vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
Guardians vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Angel Martínez (CLE) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Guardians vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Guardians vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Allen (CLE) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -105 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brayan Bello had a strike rate of just 54% (266/497) on sliders in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 51% (242/474) against Brayan Bello in the 2024 season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 91st Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 55% (97/175) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts in the 2024 season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 63% (109/173) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (10/83) against Logan Allen with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 11% (7/64) against Logan Allen this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Logan Allen allowed a slugging percentage of .551 (211 Total Bases / 383 ABs) in the 2024 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .404 — second Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 12% (8/68) versus Logan Allen with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Red Sox are just 5-69 (.068) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .139.
The Red Sox were just 17-33 (.340) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Blue Jays (23rd best runs scored) today.
The Red Sox are 8-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .748.
The Red Sox are just 4-154 (.025) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Guardians are 85-3 (.966) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .860.
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Guardians are just 0-11 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .041.
The Guardians are just 3-72 (.040) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .098.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .749 (9,848 PA’s) against RHP since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Guardians batted just .232 against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Guardians hitters struck out just 1,142 times in 6,096 PA’s (19%) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .351 against Red Sox pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .214 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Batters facing the Guardians pitchers have struck out in the zone 56% of the time this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
More MLB Reading:
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