- The Red Sox are -175 favorites vs the Marlins
- Red Sox vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Red Sox / Marlins TV Channel: NESN | BSFL
The Boston Red Sox (-175) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+145) on Tuesday, July 2, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Red Sox are 44-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 37-47 ATS.
Red Sox vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford 3-7, 3.61 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Valente Bellozo 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Red Sox vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 -105 | O 8 -105 | -175 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -115 | U 8 -115 | +145 |
Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 62.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+16.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 37 games (+11.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.70 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 games at home (+22.20 Units / 202% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+18.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+9.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+9.55 Units / 30% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+10.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 37 away games (+9.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 37 away games (+6.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 83 games (+3.35 Units / 3% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 43 games at home (+14.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 66 games (+13.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 79 games (+11.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+6.50 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.90 Units / 32% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 38-45 against the Run Line (-12.5 Units / -11.31% ROI).
- 44-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 0.99% ROI
- 39-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.35 Units / -4.78% ROI
- 40-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.75 Units / -3% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 37-47 against the Run Line (-24.36 Units / -21.59% ROI).
- 30-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.9 Units / -18.93% ROI
- 43-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.35 Units / -0.38% ROI
- 40-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.6 Units / -7.15% ROI
Marlins vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Marlins vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| David Hamilton (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Marlins vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| David Hamilton (BOS) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kutter Crawford (BOS) | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
| Valente Bellozo (MIA) | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (31/92) against Kutter Crawford in two-strike counts this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .182 (50-for-274) against Kutter Crawford’s fastball since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: .266 — 100th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has a strike rate of 68% (304/447) in two strike counts this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 85th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has allowed at least one HR in each of his last seven games dating back to May 18th — Zack Littell has the longest active streak at 8.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Valente Bellozo allowed an OPS of just .343 (18 PA’s) — 11th best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .715 — 92nd Percentile.
Valente Bellozo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .176 (3 Total Bases / 17 ABs) over the past seven days (1 games) — 8th best among NL Starters over the last week; League Avg: .390 — 88th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .118 (2-for-17) against Valente Bellozo — tied for 15th best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .241 — 88th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .118 (2-for-17) against Valente Bellozo over the past seven days (1 games) — tied for 9th best among NL Starters over the last week; League Avg: .239 — 86th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Red Sox are 22-5 (.815) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
The Red Sox are 95-8 (.922) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Red Sox are just 26-104 (.200) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Red Sox are just 27-29 (.482) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Marlins are just 16-9 (.640) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Marlins are just 2-13 (.133) after a road win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .444.
The Marlins are just 25-18 (.581) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Marlins are just 68-19 (.782) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 252 strikeouts in 896 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .270 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .337 (896 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .550 (969 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .679.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .271 (1,024 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .294 (3,729 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have a swing rate of 53% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.26 (348.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 214 of 3,105 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 21 of 392 batters (5%) over the last 14 days — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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