- The Red Sox are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
- Red Sox vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Marlins TV Channel: NESN | BSFL
The Boston Red Sox (-125) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+105) on Wednesday, July 3, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Red Sox are 45-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 37-48 ATS.
Red Sox vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 7-5, 5.58 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 1-8, 4.89 ERA
Red Sox vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +135 | O 8 +100 | -125 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -160 | U 8 -120 | +105 |
Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 56.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+16.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 37 games (+11.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.70 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 games at home (+22.20 Units / 202% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+18.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+9.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+9.55 Units / 30% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games (+11.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 38 away games (+10.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 38 away games (+7.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 43 of their last 84 games (+4.35 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games (+4.30 Units / 8% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 44 games at home (+15.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 67 games (+14.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 80 games (+12.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+5.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.70 Units / 23% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 39-45 against the Run Line (-11.5 Units / -10.31% ROI).
- 45-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 1.95% ROI
- 40-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.35 Units / -3.64% ROI
- 40-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.85 Units / -4.14% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 37-48 against the Run Line (-25.56 Units / -22.42% ROI).
- 30-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.9 Units / -19.82% ROI
- 44-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 0.69% ROI
- 40-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.7 Units / -8.24% ROI
Marlins vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
Marlins vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Marlins vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -105 |
| Trevor Rogers (MIA) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (55/364) against Brayan Bello since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (73/441) against Brayan Bello since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (156/256) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 15% (36/239) against Brayan Bello with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 48% (145/303) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 32% of Trevor Rogers’ breaking pitches (97/303) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has a first-pitch strike rate of just 43% (22/51) — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has a strike rate of just 48% (145/303) on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Red Sox are just 2-107 (.018) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Red Sox are just 43-70 (.381) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Red Sox are 34-31 (.523) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Red Sox are 45-46 (.495) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Marlins are just 16-9 (.640) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Marlins are just 9-19 (.321) after a home loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .545.
The Marlins are just 8-10 (.444) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .700.
The Marlins are just 9-9 (.500) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .753.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters are slugging .427 against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .392.
The Red Sox are batting .300 on changeups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
The Red Sox are batting .270 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have 252 strikeouts in 896 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .554 (982 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .679.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .270 (1,031 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Marlins hitters have a swing rate of 53% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .394 (1,564 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 47 of 752 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 19 of 389 batters (5%) over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 214 of 3,139 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins have allowed 5.82 runs per game (256/44) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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