- The Red Sox are -102 favorites vs the Orioles
- Red Sox vs Orioles Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Orioles TV Channel: MASN | NESN | MLBN
The Boston Red Sox (-102) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-118) on Thursday, April 3, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Baltimore, MD.
This season, the Red Sox are 2-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 3-3 ATS.
Red Sox vs Orioles Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 0-1, 6.75 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Charlie Morton 0-1, 10.81 ERA
Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +150 | O 9.5 -120 | -102 |
| Orioles | +1.5 -185 | U 9.5 +100 | -118 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+17.25 Units / 75% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+14.45 Units / 50% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+14.40 Units / 53% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+13.75 Units / 60% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.15 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Heston Kjerstad has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+10.10 Units / 85% ROI)
- Ramon Urias has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Ramon Urias has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jordan Westburg has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+7.80 Units / 156% ROI)
- Gary Sanchez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.80 Units / 30% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 60 away games (+8.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.70 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 58 away games (+4.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 away games (+0.75 Units / 5% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 89 games (+18.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 83 of their last 154 games (+17.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 83 of their last 155 games (+15.45 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 78 of their last 149 games (+6.10 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+5.25 Units / 33% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 4-2 against the Run Line (+2.15 Units / 26.22% ROI).
- 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -32.59% ROI
- 1-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.4 Units / -67.69% ROI
- 5-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.9 Units / 58.21% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 3-3 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -17.65% ROI).
- 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.9 Units / 29.01% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.35 Units / -35.34% ROI
Orioles vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Tyler O’Neill (BAL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Triston Casas (BOS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Cedric Mullins (BAL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Orioles vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Tyler O’Neill (BAL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton (BAL) | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -110 |
| Tanner Houck (BOS) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Houck has a strike rate of just 44% (12/27) in two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Tanner Houck allowed a slugging percentage of just .251 (63 Total Bases / 251 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .380 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (301/543) against Tanner Houck since last season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 92nd Percentile.
Tanner Houck has a strikeout rate of just 8% (2 SO in 24 PAs) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — fourth Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has walked 56 of 539 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — seventh Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (717/1,565) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton threw his curveball 35% of the time (228/658) when behind in the count in 2023 — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Charlie Morton allowed an OBP of .344 (713 PA’s) in 2023 — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .299 — fourth Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are just 3-146 (.020) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are just 35-142 (.198) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Red Sox are just 14-133 (.095) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are 71-6 (.922) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Orioles are 103-26 (.798) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .701.
The Orioles were 42-29 (.592) after a loss in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .503.
The Orioles are 70-24 (.745) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .627.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters are averaging 4.70 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 22% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Red Sox hitters have 523 strikeouts in 1,870 PA’s (28%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles hitters slugged .440 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Orioles hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 11 of 200 batters (6%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers walked 98 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox pitchers walked 11 of 200 batters (6%) over the last 14 days of the regular season (6 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .210 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 36% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 10 of 52 batters (19%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Orioles have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
More MLB Reading:
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