- The Red Sox are -110 favorites vs the Reds
- Red Sox vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Red Sox / Reds TV Channel: NESN | BSOH
The Boston Red Sox (-110) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-110) on Friday, June 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Red Sox are 40-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 41-33 ATS.
Red Sox vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford 3-6, 3.56 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Andrew Abbott 5-6, 3.44 ERA
Red Sox vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +145 | O 9 -105 | -110 |
| Reds | +1.5 -175 | U 9 -115 | -110 |
Red Sox vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 34 games (+15.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- David Hamilton has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+12.60 Units / 158% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+12.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+11.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- David Hamilton has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.00 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 41 games (+19.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games (+18.70 Units / 134% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 36 games (+14.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+10.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games (+9.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 34 away games (+8.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+7.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 away games (+7.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 75 games (+7.50 Units / 8% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 58 games (+15.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 22 games at home (+13.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 34 games at home (+12.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 56 games (+8.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 games (+7.35 Units / 27% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 36-39 against the Run Line (-9.2 Units / -9.01% ROI).
- 40-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.05 Units / 2.26% ROI
- 34-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.05 Units / -7.35% ROI
- 37-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.05 Units / -0.06% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 41-33 against the Run Line (+4.65 Units / 4.71% ROI).
- 35-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -4.54% ROI
- 31-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.5 Units / -16.53% ROI
- 40-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.65 Units / 6.95% ROI
Reds vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bobby Dalbec (BOS) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
Reds vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Reds vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Reds vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kutter Crawford (BOS) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Andrew Abbott (CIN) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of just .146 (6 Total Bases / 41 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .356 — 100th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has a strike rate of 72% (186/259) this month (3 games) — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .175 (47-for-268) against Kutter Crawford’s fastball since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 93 total IP; League Avg: .266 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (31/91) against Kutter Crawford in two-strike counts this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — ninth Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Andrew Abbott has walked 14 of 126 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 18% (18/100) against Andrew Abbott on sliders since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 93 total IP; League Avg: 41% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 33% (61/185) against Andrew Abbott this season — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fifth Percentile.
Andrew Abbott has walked 5 of 27 batters (18%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Red Sox are just 2-24 (.077) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
The Red Sox are 33-31 (.516) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Red Sox are just 2-30 (.062) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .109.
The Red Sox are just 19-25 (.432) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Reds are just 52-55 (.486) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .636.
The Reds are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 63-44 (.589) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds are just 25-28 (.472) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 224 strikeouts in 796 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .752 (6,678 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Red Sox are batting .262 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .231.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .113 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
The Reds are batting just .164 on breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
The Reds are batting just .131 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Reds are batting just .213 at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 197 of 2,790 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.24 (322.1 IP) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 43 of 672 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .290 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,454 of 15,294 batters (10%) since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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