- The Red Sox are -105 favorites vs the Royals
- Red Sox vs Royals Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Red Sox / Royals TV Channel: NESN | FDKC
The Boston Red Sox (-105) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-115) on Saturday, May 10, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Red Sox are 20-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 20-20 ATS.
Red Sox vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Garrett Crochet 3-2, 2.04 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Cole Ragans 2-1, 3.82 ERA
Red Sox vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +165 | O 7 +100 | -105 |
| Royals | +1.5 -200 | U 7 -120 | -115 |
Red Sox vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 52.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+12.10 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+11.05 Units / 74% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+9.60 Units / 96% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.10 Units / 41% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 7 games at home (+8.00 Units / 114% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+7.45 Units / 50% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 games (+10.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.90 Units / 45% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 40 games (+17.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 18 games (+16.35 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 32 games (+14.15 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+7.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.20 Units / 36% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 19-21 against the Run Line (-0.85 Units / -1.73% ROI).
- 20-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.45 Units / -12.76% ROI
- 18-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.9 Units / -11.11% ROI
- 21-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.5 Units / 3.42% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 20-20 against the Run Line (-6.15 Units / -10.91% ROI).
- 24-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.85 Units / 16.95% ROI
- 13-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.2 Units / -34.9% ROI
- 26-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.65 Units / 26.21% ROI
Royals vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -1200 |
Royals vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Mark Canha (KC) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Royals vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mark Canha (KC) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Royals vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cole Ragans (KC) | 7.5 -118 | 7.5 -110 |
| Garrett Crochet (BOS) | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -135 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Garrett Crochet had a strikeout rate of 39% (108/276) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has a strikeout rate of 38% (131 SO in 348 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .111 (2-for-18) against Garrett Crochet on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .340 — 98th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet had a strikeout rate of 35% (209/595) in the 2024 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cole Ragans has struck out 43% (47/109) of right-handed batters he faced this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Cole Ragans has struck out 34% (236/703) of right-handed batters he faced since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Cole Ragans has a strikeout rate of 39% (57 SO in 148 PAs) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of 34% (433/1,255) against Cole Ragans in the 2024 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are just 5-71 (.066) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .139.
The Red Sox were just 17-33 (.340) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Blue Jays (23rd best runs scored) today.
The Red Sox are just 40-156 (.204) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are just 5-59 (.078) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .190.
The Royals are just 23-67 (.256) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .375.
The Royals are just 17-83 (.170) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .300.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Red Sox are batting .377 in hitter’s counts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Red Sox hitters have put just 28% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Royals hitters have struck out in just 19% of it’s PA’s against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Royals are batting .176 on pitches out of the zone since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .150.
The Royals won only 28% of their road games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Red Sox pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox pitchers walked 98 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in 2023 — best in MLB.
Royals pitchers have walked 5% of batters over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Royals pitchers had an ERA of 5.39 (674.0 IP) on the road in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
More MLB Reading:
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