- The Red Sox are -120 favorites vs the Royals
- Red Sox vs Royals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Red Sox / Royals TV Channel: NESN | FDKC
The Boston Red Sox (-120) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+100) on Friday, May 9, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Kansas City, MO, MO.
This season, the Red Sox are 20-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 19-20 ATS.
Red Sox vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Hunter Dobbins 2-1, 3.86 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Michael Lorenzen 3-3, 4.23 ERA
Red Sox vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +140 | O 9 -115 | -120 |
| Royals | +1.5 -170 | U 9 -105 | +100 |
Red Sox vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+12.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.05 Units / 43% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+10.70 Units / 71% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+10.60 Units / 118% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.40 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games at home (+9.00 Units / 150% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.30 Units / 92% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.35 Units / 56% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 34 games (+10.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 30 games (+5.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.80 Units / 47% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 39 games (+16.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 17 games (+15.35 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 31 games (+13.15 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.60 Units / 33% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 19-20 against the Run Line (+0.15 Units / 0.31% ROI).
- 20-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.35 Units / -11.08% ROI
- 18-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -9.05% ROI
- 20-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.5 Units / 1.17% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 19-20 against the Run Line (-7.15 Units / -13.08% ROI).
- 23-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.85 Units / 15.36% ROI
- 13-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.2 Units / -33.37% ROI
- 25-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.65 Units / 24.62% ROI
Royals vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Royals vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Romy Gonzalez (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Kristian Campbell (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jonathan India (KC) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Royals vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Kristian Campbell (BOS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Royals vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Lorenzen (KC) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Hunter Dobbins (BOS) | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -145 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Dobbins has not induced opposing hitters to ground into a double play in 13 opportunities (0%) this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 10% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 36% (46/127) against Hunter Dobbins this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Dobbins has allowed three-ball counts to 12% of batters they faced (9/74 PA’s) this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 20% — 96th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Lorenzen has allowed a slugging percentage of .674 (31 Total Bases / 46 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .281 — second Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has a strikeout rate of just 20% (10 SO in 50 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — tied for 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — seventh Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen allowed a BABIP of .165 vs left-handed batters in the 2024 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .287 — 100th Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has walked 13% of batters when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox were just 17-33 (.340) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Blue Jays (23rd best runs scored) today.
The Red Sox are just 5-71 (.066) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .140.
The Red Sox were just 38-43 (.469) at home in the 2024 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are just 5-59 (.078) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .190.
The Royals are just 1-6 (.143) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Red Sox (ninth best runs scored) today.
The Royals are just 17-34 (.333) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Red Sox (ninth best runs scored) today.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 28% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox hitters are averaging 4.17 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Royals hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .287 (6,720 PA’s) on the road since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
The Royals are batting just .319 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers walked 98 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have walked 6% of batters over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in 2023 — best in MLB.
Royals pitchers have walked 4% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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