- The Yankees are -190 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Yankees Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Red Sox / Yankees TV Channel: FS1 | NESN | YES
The Boston Red Sox (+155) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-190) on Saturday, July 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in New York City, NY.
This season, the Red Sox are 48-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 48-42 ATS.
Red Sox vs Yankees Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Josh Winckowski 2-1, 2.80 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole 1-1, 6.40 ERA
Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -125 | O 9 -105 | +155 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +105 | U 9 -115 | -190 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 56.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+16.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 37 games (+11.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.70 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Aaron Judge has hit the Home Runs Over in 22 of his last 45 games (+23.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Over in 37 of his last 47 games (+22.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 47 games (+18.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+17.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+13.55 Units / 26% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 41 away games (+14.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games (+13.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 41 away games (+10.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 87 games (+5.35 Units / 5% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 33 games (+14.90 Units / 41% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 56 games (+14.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 56 games (+11.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 67 games (+9.84 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.30 Units / 91% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 41-46 against the Run Line (-10.2 Units / -8.85% ROI).
- 48-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.2 Units / 4.89% ROI
- 42-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.35 Units / -1.42% ROI
- 40-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -6 Units / -6.24% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 48-42 against the Run Line (+11.15 Units / 10.49% ROI).
- 54-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 1.67% ROI
- 47-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 2.77% ROI
- 40-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.75 Units / -11.87% ROI
Yankees vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -210 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Volpe (NYY) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Gleyber Torres (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| DJ LeMahieu (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Yankees vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alex Verdugo (NYY) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole (NYY) | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -135 |
| Josh Winckowski (BOS) | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -145 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josh Winckowski has thrown inside pitches 52% of the time (440/853) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .284 (117-for-412) against Josh Winckowski since the 2022 season — tied for 6th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .230 — seventh Percentile.
Josh Winckowski has thrown inside pitches 50% of the time (722/1,450) vs left-handed batters since the 2022 season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .565 (13-for-23) against Josh Winckowski when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .321 — first Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gerrit Cole has allowed an OPS of just .543 (610 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .678 — 100th Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has allowed an OBP of just .245 (609 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — 100th Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has walked 52 of 621 batters (8%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — eighth Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has a strikeout rate of 30% (183 SO in 610 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox are 29-3 (.906) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .753.
The Red Sox are 98-8 (.925) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Red Sox are 24-5 (.828) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Red Sox are 43-9 (.827) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees are 24-20 (.545) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Yankees are 34-19 (.642) after a win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .489.
The Yankees are 59-18 (.766) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .619.
The Yankees are 10-13 (.435) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 274 strikeouts in 949 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have 28 strikeouts in 69 PA’s (41%) against LHP over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .332 (4,074 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 105 walks in 938 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 379 walks in 3,655 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 2,155 of their 9,400 plate appearances (23%) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 226 of 3,264 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 49 of 783 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
The Yankees have won 47% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .199 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Yankees pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 32% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Anthony Volpe (New York Yankees): Illness, Day-To-Day
- Lou Trivino (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Scott Effross (New York Yankees): Back, 60-Day IL
- Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- McKinley Moore (New York Yankees): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Weber (New York Yankees): Forearm, Out
- DJ LeMahieu (New York Yankees): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Oscar Gonzalez (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
- Jorbit Vivas (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
- Tommy Kahnle (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Oswald Peraza (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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