- The Astros are -150 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Astros Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Reds / Astros TV Channel: FDOH | SCHN
The Cincinnati Reds (+125) visit Daikin Park to take on the Houston Astros (-150) on Sunday, May 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Reds are 20-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 21-17 ATS.
Reds vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Chase Petty 0-1, 34.75 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Ronel Blanco 2-3, 5.08 ERA
Reds vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -185 | O 8.5 -115 | +125 |
| Astros | -1.5 +150 | U 8.5 -105 | -150 |
Reds vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 57.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- Gavin Lux has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+7.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Gavin Lux has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+6.95 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Victor Caratini has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+13.40 Units / 335% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Victor Caratini has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+8.20 Units / 82% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 30 games (+5.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 38 games (+4.55 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 away games (+3.40 Units / 17% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games (+10.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+8.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games (+7.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+5.35 Units / 34% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 23-18 against the Run Line (+0.2 Units / 0.34% ROI).
- 20-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -3.99% ROI
- 18-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.1 Units / -13.6% ROI
- 22-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.05 Units / 4.52% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 21-17 against the Run Line (+5.85 Units / 12.1% ROI).
- 19-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.25 Units / -10.55% ROI
- 17-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -8.82% ROI
- 19-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.1 Units / 0.24% ROI
Astros vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Zach Dezenzo (HOU) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Astros vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Mauricio Dubon (HOU) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Astros vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Isaac Paredes (HOU) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Astros vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chase Petty (CIN) | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +105 |
| Ronel Blanco (HOU) | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -160 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chase Petty has limited playing time.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ronel Blanco has walked 12% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Ronel Blanco has walked 12% of batters versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.
Ronel Blanco walked 33 of 270 batters (12%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Opponents batted just .147 (33-for-225) against Ronel Blanco when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 100th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Reds are just 14-29 (.326) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 6-77 (.072) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .139.
The Reds are just 4-80 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .096.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Astros are just 1-74 (.013) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros are just 2-7 (.222) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Reds (16th best runs scored) today.
The Astros were just 5-13 (.278) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds batted just .116 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Reds hitters slugged just .151 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Reds are batting just .118 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Reds hitters are slugging just .155 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have put just 29% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Astros hitters averaged just 3.66 pitches per plate appearance in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have put 46% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have walked 13% of batters this month (8 game{NumGameSuffix}) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
More MLB Reading:
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