- The Brewers are -135 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Reds / Brewers TV Channel: BSOH | BSWI
The Cincinnati Reds (+115) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-135) on Saturday, June 15, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Reds are 34-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 36-33 ATS.
Reds vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Andrew Abbott 5-5, 3.30 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Bryse Wilson 3-3, 4.19 ERA
Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -110 | +115 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +145 | U 9 -110 | -135 |
Reds vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 11 games (+21.70 Units / 197% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 36 games (+17.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 32 games (+13.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Andrew Abbott has hit the Earned Runs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 38 games (+9.00 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Sal Frelick has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games at home (+19.00 Units / 211% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+11.60 Units / 52% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 24 games at home (+10.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+8.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+7.90 Units / 35% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 away games (+11.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 51 games (+10.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games (+10.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+10.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 54 games (+7.05 Units / 11% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+10.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 69 games (+9.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+9.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 69 games (+6.95 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+6.20 Units / 26% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 39-30 against the Run Line (+6.75 Units / 7.4% ROI).
- 34-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.9 Units / -1.12% ROI
- 31-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.15 Units / -10.68% ROI
- 35-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.65 Units / 0.86% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 36-33 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -0.58% ROI).
- 40-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.95 Units / 11.8% ROI
- 38-28 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.45 Units / 9.84% ROI
- 28-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.75 Units / -18.08% ROI
Brewers vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Brewers vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Brewers vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Brewers vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryse Wilson (MIL) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -135 |
| Andrew Abbott (CIN) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -135 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 15% (5/34) against Andrew Abbott — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 15% (5/34) against Andrew Abbott this month (2 games) — lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Andrew Abbott has a first-pitch strike rate of just 48% (24/50) this month (2 games) — 2nd lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 63% — fourth Percentile.
Andrew Abbott has walked 12 of 117 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — seventh Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (195/992) against Bryse Wilson since last season — tied for 10th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 28% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (45/259) against Bryse Wilson with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 28% — second Percentile.
Bryse Wilson has allowed an OBP of just .241 (328 PA’s) against right-handed batters since last season — tied for 4th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .304 — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 20% (118/580) against Bryse Wilson since last season — 6th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 28% — sixth Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are just 24-28 (.462) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Reds are just 1-6 (.143) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 63-43 (.594) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds are 34-27 (.557) after a road win since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 11-17 (.393) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .189.
The Brewers are 30-56 (.349) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Brewers are 37-24 (.607) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 92-16 (.852) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .789.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .132 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.
Reds hitters have pulled 52% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Reds hitters are slugging just .155 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Reds hitters are slugging just .219 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .338 (2,047 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Brewers hitters have a groundball batting average of .292 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .344 (1,212 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of .753 (2,047 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .291 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Reds pitchers have walked 28 of 210 batters (13%) over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 325 of 3,482 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 37% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Brewers have allowed 3.89 runs per game (459/118) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.51.
Brewers vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
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